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1、15CorporateControl,PortfolioChoice,andtheDeclineofBankingGARYB.GORTONANDRICHARDROSEN*The1980swasnotagooddecadeforU.S.banks.GeraldCorrigan(1992),theheadoftheNewYorkFederalReserveBankduringtheperiod,observedthat:...wewouldallacceptthefactthatthedecadeofthe1980swassurelyth
2、emostdifficultintervalfacedbytheU.S.bankingsystemsincethe1930s.Indeed,duringthe1980s,bankprofitabilitydeclinedsteadily,whethermeasuredbyaccountingreturnonequity,returnonassets,ormarketvalue.Figure15.1showstheaccountingreturnonassets.1Notonlydidbanking*GortonisfromTheWharto
3、nSchool,UniversityofPennsylvaniaandtheNationalBureauofEco-nomicResearch(NBER).RosenisfromIndianaUniversity.ThankstoStephenBuser,CharlesCalomiris,FrankDiebold,MarkFlannery,JavierHidalgo,ChrisJames,MyronKwast,DavidLlewellyn,MaxMaksimovic,PatMcAllister,GeorgePennacchi,Steve
4、Prowse,ReneStulz,GregUdell,ananonymousreferee,andparticipantsofseminarsattheLondonSchoolofEconomics,StockholmSchoolofEconomics,theBoardofGovernorsLunchtimeWorkshop,thePennMacroLunchGroup,theUniversityofChicago,theChicagoFedBankStructureConference,CornellUniversity,Univer
5、sityofFlorida,UniversityofMichigan,theNBERCorporateFinanceGroup,theMarylandSymposium,theOfficeofThriftSupervision,andtheSanFranciscoFederalReserveBankforsuggestionsanddiscussion.MuchoftheworkonthispaperwasdonewhileRosenwasattheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystem.The
6、viewsexpressedinthispaperrepresenttheauthorsviewsonlyanddonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsoftheFederalReserveSystem.PartofthispaperwaspreviouslypartofapaperentitledOvercapacityandExitFromBanking.1.Controllingfortheeffectsin1987and1988oflargebankwrite-downsofLDCloansin1987
7、,thedeclineinprofitsshowninFigure15.1isstatisticallysignificant.Theincreaseincharge-offsisalsosignificant.MarketvaluedataonthereturntobankequityisconsistentwiththebookvaluedatashowninFigure15.1.Overthe1980stheS&P500outperformedtheSalomonBrothersindex458CHANGEINBANKING1.601.
8、40ROACharge-offs1.201.000.800.60Percentage0.400.200.0078798081828384858687888990(0.20)YearFigure15.1Ban
