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1、CrossAssetResearch16May2013USshaleenergyModesteconomicandequitymarketeffectssettogrowovertimeEconomicsResearch•DramaticchangesinUSenergymarketsasaresultoftherevolutioninoilandDeanMaki*naturalgasdrillingtechnologieshaveledtoadirect,albeitmodest,boosttoUS+12125261731GDPand
2、industrialproduction.Lowernaturalgaspricescouldhavesignificantdean.maki@barclays.comindirecteffectsontheeconomy,particularlybenefitingUShouseholdsandmanufacturers,andthedirectandindirecteffectswilllikelygrow.CommoditiesResearch-OilHelimaCroft*•Atwo-stageprocess,firstdema
3、nd-thensupply-led,hasbroughtaboutahalving+12125260764inUSoilimportssince2007tothecurrent6-7mb/d.Furtherstronggrowthinhelima.croft@barclays.comtightoilandmodestincreasesinothercomponentsofUSoiloutputshouldmorethanoffsetamodestmoveupindemandovertherestofthisdecade,butevens
4、o,KevinNorrish*weexpecttheUStoremainanetimporterofcrudeoilof5-6mb/dby2020.+44(0)2077730369kevin.norrish@barclays.com•NaturalgassupplyintheUShassurged,drivenbythesuccessfuldeploymentandcontinuedrefinementofhorizontaldrillingandhydraulicfracturing.Thishasnot,CommoditiesRes
5、earch-NaturalGashowever,beenmatchedbydemand,andpriceshavedroppedtolevelsthatBilianaPehlivanova*+12125261170displacecoalinpowergeneration.Thisdynamicwilllikelyremainkeytobalancingbiliana.pehlivanova@barclays.comthegasmarketintheforeseeablefuture.•Inthenearterm,weexpectamo
6、desteffectonUSequitiesfromshale.LowerEquitiesResearchenergycostscreatecompetitiveadvantagesforselectindustries(e.g.,refinersandBarryKnapp+12125265313chemicals),butthedecisiontorelocatethebulkofglobalmanufacturingshouldbarry.knapp@barclays.combedrivenbynon-energyfactors.W
7、eprefercapexbeneficiaries–majorserviceBCI,NewYorkcompaniesandpipelineinfrastructure–tomorecommodity-leveragedpositions.However,USrefinersofferattractiverisk/reward.EricSlover,CFA+12125266426Economicseric.slover@barclays.comAmodestdirectboosttoGDPandjobgrowth2BCI,NewYorkI
8、nthenearterm,weexpecttheeffectsofincreasedproductionofoilandnaturalgastowww.barclays.comincreaseaggrega
