a quantitative theory of decision

《a quantitative theory of decision》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在工程资料-天天文库。

1、AQUANTITATIVETHEORYOFDECISIONBYDORWINCARTWRIGHTDepartmentofAgriculture,WashingtonANDLEONFESTINGERStateUniversityofIowaI.INTRODUCTIONThemarkofmaturityofascienceistheextenttowhichitcanstateitslawsandfunctionalrelationshipsinprecisemathematicalterminology.Statisticaltechniques,especiallythoseem

2、ployingthetheoriesofprobability,havefoundwideapplicationinpsychology.Somegeometricalconcepts,par-ticularlythoseoftopology,havealsobeenusedalthoughsomewhatlesswidely.Rarely,ifever,however,hastherebeenathoroughapplicationofbothtypesofmathematicalmeansinpsychologicaltheory.Recentlyinpsychophysi

3、csanattempthasbeenmadebyCartwright(5)toutilizegeometricalconceptsinthecon-structionofatheorywhichbringspsychophysicsand'motiva-tionpsychology'closertogether.Weshallhereattempttobringstatisticalandgeometricalconceptstogetherinaquantitativetheoryofdecision.Cartwrightpresentedatheoryofdecision-

4、timeintopo-logicalandvectorialtermswhichleadstothegrosspredictionthatdecisiontimeapproachesamaximumastherelativefrequencyofagivenresponseapproachesfiftypercent.Thistheorymakescongruentotherwiseunrelatedandapparentlyinconsistentpsychophysicaldata.Inthepresentpaperweshallmakearefinementandfurt

5、herquantificationofthetheorysothattheabsolutevaluesofbothdecision-timeandrelativefrequencymaybepredictedforspecifiedconditions.Thediscussionoftheserefinementswillbefacilitatedby595596DORWINCARTWRIGHTANDLEONFESTINGERasummaryoftheearlierstatementofthetheory.Cartwrightassumedthattheforcesdeterm

6、iningjudgmenttimeinapsychophyicalexperimentoperateinessentiallythesamewayasthosedetermininganysortofdecision.Atopologicalrepre-sentationofasimpledecisionsituationandtheforceswhichdetermineitsoutcomearereproducedinFig.I.InthisFIG.i.Atopologicalrepresentationofadecisioninvolvingtwoalternatives

7、.RegionPrepresentstheperson,regionDrepresentstheactivityofdeciding,andAandBstandforthetwoalternatives.hypotheticalcaseonlytwoalternatives(AandJ5)arepossible,and,assumingthattheyarebothattractive,twoforces(/P,Aand/p,B)actuponthepersoninthedirectiono