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《Some Counterexamples to Causal Decision Theory by Andy Egan》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在学术论文-天天文库。
1、SomeCounterexamplestoCausalDecisionTheoryAndyEganAustralianNationalUniversity/UniversityofMichiganManyphilosophershavebeenconvertedtocausaldecisiontheorybysomethinglikethefollowinglineofargument:Evidentialdecisiontheoryendorsesirrationalcoursesofactioninarangeofexamplesandendorses
2、"anirrationalpolicyofmanagingthenews"(Lewis1981,5).Thesearefatalproblemsforevidentialdecisiontheory.Causaldecisiontheorydeliverstherightresultsinthetroublesomeexamplesanddoesnotendorsethiskindofirrationalnews-managing.Soweshouldgiveupevidentialdecisiontheoryandbecausaldecisiontheo
3、ristsinstead.Unfortunately,causaldecisiontheoryhasitsownfamilyofprob-Iematicexamplesforwhichitendorsesirrationalcoursesofactionanditsownirrationalpolicythatitiscommittedtoendorsing.Theseare,Ithink,fatalpròblemsforcausaldecisiontheory.l.TheCaseagainstEvidentialDecisionTheoryEvident
4、ialdecisiontheorysaysthattheactionthatit'srationaltoperformistheone(ignoringthepossibilityofties)withthegreatestexpectedutility-theonesuchthatyourexpectationsforhowwellthingswillturnIamparticularlygratefultoDavidBraddon-MitchellfortheseriesofconversationsthatIedtothispaperandforma
5、nyfurtherconversationsasitwasinprogress.ThanksalsotoAdamElga,NedHall,JamesPryo¡BrianWeatherson,KarenBennett,DanielStol-jar,JamesJoyce,VannMcGee,AllanGibbard,AlanHájek,AnilGupta,andaudiencesatMIT,theUniversityofPittsburgh,OxfordUniversity,BowlingGreenStateUniver-sity,andtheANUPhilo
6、sophicalSocietyforveryhelpfulquestions,commenrs,sugges-tions,andobjections.*'Tïi':;:åí";';;Jå1,',1i;;;;,""O2007byCornellUniversityANDYEGANSotneCounterexamþlestoCausq,lDecisionTheoryout,conditionalonyourperformingit,aregreaterthantheexpecta-FollowingDavidLewis,letad,eþend,enqhyþoth
7、esisbeapropositiontionsconditionalonperforminganyotheraction.Sotheactionthatit'sthatismaximallyspecificabouthowthingsthattheagentcaresaboutrarionaltoperformwillalsobetheonethatyou(orafriendwithyourdependcausallyonwhattheagentdoes.AlsofollowingLewis,letusinterestsinmindandwiththesa
8、meideasaboutwhereyourinterestslie
