中国金融稳定性指数的测算与分析.doc

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1、中国金融稳定性指数的测算与分析中国金融稳定性指数的测算与分析一、金融稳定性指标基础数据收集1993——2010年金融稳定性评估框架中反映金融稳定性指标的基础数据年份国内生产总值（亿元）财政收支差额（亿元）中国GDP平减指数（1978=100）美国GDP平减指数（1978=100）货币供给量M2（亿元）金融机构信贷总量（亿元）短期债务（亿美元）外债总额（亿美元）负债率（%）经常账户顺差（亿美元）外汇储备总量（亿美元）人民币汇率199335333.9293.35115.2102.434879.832943.142.67412.9913.9-119.0211.995.762

2、199448197.9574.52120.6102.046923.53997673.07400.0317.176.6516.28.619199560793.7581.52113.7102.660750.550544.1119.161065.915.216.2735.978.351199671176.6529.56106.4101.276094.961156.6141.081162.7514.272.41050.298.314199778973582.42101.5101.990995.374914.1181.41309.614.5297.21398.98.291998

3、84402.3922.2399.1100.5104498.586524.1173.41460.4315.2293.21449.598.279199989677.11743.5998.7101.5119897.993734.3151.81518.315.3156.71546.758.278200099214.62491.27102.0103.4134610.499371.07130.81457.313.5205.21655.748.2792001109655.22516.54102.1102.9158301.9112314.7505.81701.114.7174.121

4、21.658.2772002120332.73149.51100.6101.5185007131293.95581713.613.6354.22864.078.2772003135822.82934.7102.6100.8221222.8158996.2770.441936.3413.7458.74032.518.2772004159878.32090.42106.9103.4254107178197.81043.092285.9613.9686.66099.328.2772005184937.42280.99103.8103.7298755.7194690.4156

5、1.432810.4512.61608.28188.328.1942006216314.41662.53103.6103.5345603.59225347.21836.283229.8812.32532.710663.47.9732007265810.3-1540.43107.4102.6403442.2261690.92200.843736.1811.53718.315282.497.6082008314045.41262.31107.2105.1475166.6303394.62107.853746.618.74261.119460.36.949200934090

6、2.87781.699.5　97.4　610224.52399684.822592.64286.58.732971.423991.526.831201039798310100106.0　102.8　725851.79479195.553756.955489.389.343054.028473.386.6227二、基础数据的处理与金融稳定性指标的计算1993-2010年金融稳定性评估框架中反映金融稳定性的指标年度实际GDP增长率(%)相对通货膨胀率财政收支差额/GDP(%)M2/GDP信贷增长率(%)短期债务/外汇储备(%)短期债务/外债总额(%)负债率(%)经常账户差

7、额/GDP(%)实际汇率变动率(%)199314.0012.80.830.9966.2020.1310.3313.9-1.94　-5.41199413.0918.61.190.9770.3314.1618.2717.11.37　38.03199510.9311.10.961.00105.6816.1911.1815.20.22　-16.18199610.015.20.741.07106.1313.4312.1314.20.85　-5.4519979.28-0.40.741.15137.5812.9713.8514.53.12　-0.8519987.8