美元：长期熊市的开始.docx

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1、TableofContentsWhywestaydollarbearsandimplications3WhywestaybearishontheUSdollar3TheeuroversustheUSdollar4WhenwouldpolicymakerstrytostopUSDweakness?8Whatnormallystopsalong-termcurrencymove?9Whataboutyenandsterling?9Impactofdollarweakness11Positiveforgrowth11Positivef

2、orinflationexpectations12Commodityprices13Gold15Regions16Emergingmarkets16Europe19Japan21UK22Hedgedversusunhedgedreturns23Sectors24SectorswithdomesticEuropeexposure24Whataboutspecificstocks?25Smallcaps28Appendix30Appendix1:Brexit30Appendix2:EMcurrenciesvsfundamentals

3、31Appendix3:Sector-adjustedP/E–EuropevsUS32Appendix4:Hedgedversusunhedgedreturns–JapanandtheUK32WhywestaydollarbearsandimplicationsWhywestaybearishontheUSdollarInJuly,thedollarsawitsbiggestmonthlydepreciationsinceSeptember2010andweexpecttheUSDtoweakenfurthertoEURUSD1

4、.25bytheendoftheyear(inlinewiththeCShouseviewoffairvalueofEURUSD1.26–seeEquilibriumexchangerates:CSfairvalueupdateforQ22020).In2010,theUSDalsocontinuedtoweakenby7%overthesubsequentsevenmonths.Figure1:MonthlychangesinDXY10%8%6%4%2%0%-2%-4%-6%-8%DXYmonthly%changeApril

5、2011-3.86%Sep2010-5.38%Apr2015-4.15%-3.82%2000200220042006200820102012201420162018Source:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearchHistoricallythedollarhastendedtohavebullmarketslastingnolongerthansevenyears(ifthedollarhadralliedthisyear,itwouldhavebeentheninthyearofabullmarket

6、),followedbyverylong-termbearmarkets.Wecanseethemagnitudeofsuchmoves–sofarthedollarisdown9%fromitspeakinMarchcomparedwithatypicalbearmarketdeclineof40-50%andsixyears.However,wewouldexpectthebearmarketinthedollartobeofasmallermagnitudethistimearound(notleastbecauseitn

7、everbecameasovervalued).Figure2:Dollarbullmarketshavetendedtolastnolongerthansevenyears6.5yrs+67%10yrs-47%6.5yrs+42%9.5yrs-39%5.5yrs+43%18016014012010080601975198019851990199520002005201020152020TradeweightedUSdollarSource:Refinitiv,CreditSuisseresearchTheeuroversust

8、heUSdollarWeseethefollowingargumentsforaweakerUSdollar:1.TheFedwillhavetoprintmuchmorethantheECBTheFedislikelytoprintsignificantlym