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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacificAsiaPacificThematicStrategyTheendoffoodinflation?Strategy
2、StrategyFigure1:TheearthwasprovidingsurplusfoodcaloriesevenbeforethecrisisSource:CreditSuisse■Caloriedemandnotimmune.Demandforcaloriesshouldbetheleastimpactedbyaneconomicdownturn,butit
3、doesgetaffected;inparticular,thetypeofcaloriesingested.Whiledemandgrowthhadalreadyfallenwithslowingpopulationgrowth,percapitagrowthhadbeenrelativelysteady.However,thiscouldbeatrisknowaspercapitaincomesstruggle:nearlyallincrementalcaloriesafter1,800kcal/daycomefrommor
4、eexpensivefats,andcaloriesfromcarbstoohavebeenswitchingfromcerealstopriciersourcessuchasmilk,fruitsandvegetables.Pricesforthesemustdeclinetosustaindemandgrowth.■Thecornucopiacontinuestoprovide.Convertingenergyfromthesuntoediblecaloriesneedslandandwater:thatbotharelim
5、itedhasbeenapersistentsourceofconcernforhumanity.However,risinginventoriesofcerealsoverthepastdecadepointtopersistentsurpluses.Acreagehasbeenshiftingtocropsneededforfats:palm,cornandsoya;goingforward,thelandthesemayneedwouldbeafifthofthesurpluslandincereals.Whilefats
6、havealargerfreshwaterfootprint,moreindustrialisationandconsolidationinmeatproduction,andgrowthofhigh-efficiencypalmoilarehelpingminimisetheimpact.■Weseefivekeyimplications:(1)lowinflation:foodisamongthemajornon-monetarysourcesofinflationandinflationexpectations;impro
7、vingfoodsupplyhashelpeddrivedowntheamplitudeandvolatilityofinflationalreadyoverthepastfewdecades;whiledisruptedsupplychainscancausesomenear-termretailpricevolatility,theone-yearoutlookforfoodinflationisweak,evenasexcessmoneysupplyraisesinflationthreats;(2)packagedfoo
8、d/alcoholmargins:brandsshouldbeabletoholdpricesevenasinputcostsdecline;(3)steadymeatdemandgrowth:surpluscalorieproductiontohelpkeepmeatpriceslow,supportingdemandgrowthwhichwouldhavecollapsedotherwise;(4)Kfertiliserdemand:fat-drivenfoodsneedmorepotashfertiliser,andles
9、sNfertiliser;and(5)shareResearchAnalystsNeelkanthMishra912267773716neelkanth.mishra@credit-suisse.comAkritiSwaroop,CFA912267773871
