ch08strategic and tactical supply chain planning：advance modeling applications

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1、1StrategicandTacticalsupplychainplanning：AdvanceModelingApplications報告者：董光洋2/30Agenda8.1-IntegratingSupplyChainandDemandManagement8.2-PriceandlocationSensitiverevenueCurves8.3-IntegratingSupplyChainandMarketingModelsforconsumerproducts8.4-PlanningforNewProductIntroductionandGr

2、owth8.5-OptimizationModelsforCompetitiveAnalysis8.6-ApplicationofCompetitiveAnalysisintheforestProductsIndustry8.7-DecisionTreesandStochasticProgramming8.8-SupplyChainStrategiesforManagingProductVariety8.9-ScenarioPlanning8.10-FinalThoughts3/308.1-IntegratingSupplyChainandDema

3、ndManagementSupplyChaincomplaintsMarketingcomplaints不正確的長期銷售預測常變動的短期預測對於成品的過度存貨需求產品線廣、需求少，不符合經濟規模對於客戶服務、運輸時效、品質的需求不實際產品不應該用在那些他們沒設計的用途上製造產能不足製造和物流的leadtime過多成品的存貨不足供應鏈的成本過高。服務成本過高Table8.14/308.1-IntegratingSupplyChainandDemandManagement(續)Descriptivemodels→可以調解supplychainmanag

4、er和marketingmanager之間的衝突。Optimizationmodels→描述性模式應該包含最佳化模式。In-sampleversusout-of-sample→利用過去歷史資料和實際資料比較分析。Marketingsciencemodels→預測price、promotion、advertising、saleforce對於需求及市佔率影響。5/308.2-PriceandlocationSensitiverevenueCurvesMin.SalesMax.SalesD=ForcastedDemandVolumeofProduc

5、tsoldGrossRevenue6/30PriceModels8.1itisimplicitlyrelatedtothepriceelasticityofdemand.Thepricemustbedecreasingtoinducegreatersales.長期來說，價格可能有向上或向下的壓力存在：Upward改善產品功能公司形象提升原物料價格提升DownwardCross-elasticities：Demandrelationshipsbetweenpairsofproducts.7/30PriceModels8.1itisimplicitly

6、relatedtothepriceelasticityofdemand.Thepricemustbedecreasingtoinducegreatersales.長期來說，價格可能有向上或向下的壓力存在：UpwardDownward有效替代品競爭者率先降價產業況狀Cross-elasticities：Demandrelationshipsbetweenpairsofproducts.8/30LocationSensitiveRevenueFunctionsDistancetoSourcingDCIs200Miles.DistancetoSou

7、rcingDCIs20Miles.Min.Sales1Max.Sales1Min.Sales2Max.Sales2Revenue9/30LocationSensitiveRevenueFunctions(續)Dependonthedistancebetweenthecustomerandthedistributioncenter→standardandemergencyshipments；timedelay.(視策略及顧客重要性決定)Figure8.2此模式可以用0-1變數來表示：0→function11→function2Logitmo

8、del→translatesthepreferenceofaconsumerintoprobabilitiesthathe