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1、BISWorkingPapersNo855Doestheliquiditytrapexist?byStéphaneLhuissier,BenoîtMojon,JuanRubioRamírezMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentApril2020JELclassification:E32,E44,E52.Keywords:liquiditytrap,effectivelowerbound,monetarytransmission.联系微信客服1225791460领取配套福利课程BISWorkingPapersarewrittenbymem
2、bersoftheMonetaryandEconomicDepartmentoftheBankforInternationalSettlements,andfromtimetotimebyothereconomists,andarepublishedbytheBank.Thepapersareonsubjectsoftopicalinterestandaretechnicalincharacter.TheviewsexpressedinthemarethoseoftheirauthorsandnotnecessarilytheviewsoftheBIS.Th
3、ispublicationisavailableontheBISwebsite(www.bis.org).©BankforInternationalSettlements2020.Allrightsreserved.Briefexcerptsmaybereproducedortranslatedprovidedthesourceisstated.ISSN1020-0959(print)ISSN1682-7678(online)DOESTHELIQUIDITYTRAPEXIST?*STEPHANELHUISSIER,BENO^ITMOJON,ANDJUANR
4、UBIO-RAMIREZAbstract.Theliquiditytrapissynonymouswithineectivemonetarypolicy.Thecommonwisdomisthat,astheshort-terminterestratenearsitseectivelowerbound,monetarypolicycannotdomuchtostimulatetheeconomy.However,centralbankshaveresortedtoalternativeinstruments,suchasQE,crediteasinga
5、ndforwardguidance.Usingstate-of-the-artestimatesoftheeectsofmonetarypolicy,weshowthatmonetaryeasingstimulatesoutputandin
ation,alsoduringtheperiodwhenshort-terminterestratesareneartheirlowerbound.TheseresultsareconsistentacrosstheUnitedStates,theeuroareaandJapan.I.IntroductionInth
6、isarticle,wecomparetheeectsofmonetarypolicyshocksinsituationswheretheshort-terminterestrateisnearitseectivelowerbound(ELB)withtheireectswhenthisisnotthecase,usingaBayesianstructuralvectorautoregression(SVAR)framework.WedeneELBtimes"asperiodswhenboththelevelandthestandarddeviat
7、ionofshort-terminterestratesareclosetozero.Thelevelofthenominalshort-terminterestratemayevenbenegative,ashasbeenthecaseintheeuroarea,Japanandseveralothercountries.TheELBtimesextendfromJanuary2009toDecember2015fortheUnitedStateseconomy,sinceJuly2012fortheeuroareaandsinceJanuary1996f
8、orJapan.Estimatesoftheeec