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1、9April2020EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、AustraliaAustralianEquityStrategy#18ThepointofnoreturnStrategyFigure1:BondsarenotpricingininflationpressurefromsupplychaindisruptionResearchAnalysts3.6%80DamienBoey612820546153.0%70damien.boey@credit-suisse.com2.4%601.8%501.2%400.6%300.0%201997200220072012201720
3、2210-yearBreakevenInflationExpectations(LHS)ISMPipelineInflationIndicator(RHS)Source:CreditSuisseestimates,theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,ThomsonReutersDatastreamThisrecessionisdifferent:Thedownturnissupply-,moresothandemand-driven.Itisservices-moresothangoods-driven.Ithasmedicalandnotjustmoneta
4、rydimensions.Uncertaintyishigh.TheChinesechosetostoptheireconomytocontainthespreadofCOVID-19beforestimulating.ButtheWestseemstohavetriedstimulatingbeforestopping.Wehaveseenextremelyconflictedpriorities,contributingtohighuncertainty.Andhistorically,highuncertaintyhasmadelifedifficultformomentuminve
5、stors.Inflationisthekeyrisklongerterm.Policymakersaretryingvaliantlytopreservethefinancialintegrityofthesupplysideoftheeconomyduringtheshutdownphase.Butitisdifficult,ifnotimpossibletosaveeveryone.Andwhenconditionsreturntonormal,wewillnotgetbankruptedbusinessesback.Therecessionisexpectedtodestroypr
6、oductivecapacity,contributingtoinflationpressurelongerterm,especiallyinthepresenceofdemandstimulus.Also,wenotethatcentralbanksareattemptingtobreakthedeflationarydynamicsofconventionalquantitativeeasingbylendingmoredirectlytotherealeconomy,aswellastakingonmoreforeignexchangeandcreditrisksontotheirb
7、alancesheets.Theyareinternalisingsocialrisks.Buttheycannotdosoindefinitelywithoutconsequences.Overweightresources.Momentum-reversalfactors,combinedwithahealthyscepticismofvaluefactorsandaqualityoverlay,putusintoresourcesstockswithintheASX100.Thefactorviewcomplementsourassetallocationandeconomicvie
8、ws,pointingtoresourcesstocksasahedgeagainstinflationrisk.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:Cr
