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1、EquityResearchAsiaPacific
2、AustraliaAustralianEquityStrategy#18ThepointofnoreturnStrategyFigure1:BondsarenotpricingininflationpressurefromsupplychaindisruptionResearchAnalysts3.6%3.0%2.4%1.8%1.2%0.6%0.0%8070605040302019972002200720122017202210-yearBreakevenInfla
3、tionExpectations(LHS)ISMPipelineInflationIndicator(RHS)DamienBoey61282054615damien.boey@credit-suisse.comSource:CreditSuisseestimates,theBLOOMBERGPROFESSIONAL™service,ThomsonReutersDatastreamThisrecessionisdifferent:Thedownturnissupply-,moresothandemand-driven.
4、Itisservices-moresothangoods-driven.Ithasmedicalandnotjustmonetarydimensions.Uncertaintyishigh.TheChinesechosetostoptheireconomytocontainthespreadofCOVID-19beforestimulating.ButtheWestseemstohavetriedstimulatingbeforestopping.Wehaveseenextremelyconflictedpriorit
5、ies,contributingtohighuncertainty.Andhistorically,highuncertaintyhasmadelifedifficultformomentuminvestors.Inflationisthekeyrisklongerterm.Policymakersaretryingvaliantlytopreservethefinancialintegrityofthesupplysideoftheeconomyduringtheshutdownphase.Butitisdiffic
6、ult,ifnotimpossibletosaveeveryone.Andwhenconditionsreturntonormal,wewillnotgetbankruptedbusinessesback.Therecessionisexpectedtodestroyproductivecapacity,contributingtoinflationpressurelongerterm,especiallyinthepresenceofdemandstimulus.Also,wenotethatcentralbanks
7、areattemptingtobreakthedeflationarydynamicsofconventionalquantitativeeasingbylendingmoredirectlytotherealeconomy,aswellastakingonmoreforeignexchangeandcreditrisksontotheirbalancesheets.Theyareinternalisingsocialrisks.Buttheycannotdosoindefinitelywithoutconsequen
8、ces.Overweightresources.Momentum-reversalfactors,combinedwithahealthyscepticismofvaluefactorsandaqualityoverlay,putusintoresourcesstockswithintheASX100.Thefactorviewcomplementsourassetallocationandeconomicviews,pointingtoresourcesstocksasahedgeagainstinflationri
9、sk.DISCLOSUREAPPENDIXATTHEBACKOFTHISREPORTCONTAINSIMPORTANTDISCLOSURES,ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONS,LEGALENTITYDISCLOSUREANDTHESTATUSOFNON-USANALYSTS.USDisclosure:CreditSuis
