RF-英国-房地产行业-2020年Q2英国住房市场展望-2020040.pdf

RF-英国-房地产行业-2020年Q2英国住房市场展望-2020040.pdf

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时间:2020-05-02

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1、THERFHOUSINGOUTLOOK

2、QUARTERLYBRIEFINGQ220201TheResolutionFoundationHousingOutlookLindsayJudge

3、CaraPacittiThisisjustthesecondResolutionFoundationHousingOutlook,butitisbeingpublishedinaradicallydifferentworldtothefirstOutlookofJanuary2020.Whilehousingitselfplayedacentralroleinthedownturnof2008,toda

4、ytheeconomiccrisisisbeingdrivenbyafalloffinactivityasjobsdisappearorbecomingverydifficulttoundertake.Inthisnoteweanalysewhatthiscoronavirusincomeshockmeansforfamiliesastheyseektomanagetheirhousingcostsinthecomingmonths,andassessthewaystheyarebeinghelpedtoweatherthestorm.Critically,wesuggestthatev

5、enwithmoregeneroushousingcostssupport,significantnumbersofrenterscouldbuilduprentarrears.Furtheractionfromgovernmentaswellasforbearancefromlandlordswilllikelyberequiredifanuptickinhousingstressistobeaverted.Spotlight

6、HousingandthecoronavirusincomeshockFormanyfamilies,housingisthelargestsingleexpe

7、ndituretheymakeeachmonth,andonethatisdifficulttoeasilyadjust(evencomparedtootheressentialssuchasclothingorheating).Atthetimeofwriting,weestimatethatbetweenone-thirdtoone-halfoftheUK’slabourforceisunabletowork,eitherbecausepeopleareinsectorsseverelyaffectedbythecrisis;theyhaveschoolagechildrenbuta

8、renotkeyworkers;ortheyperformnon-essentialjobsthatcannotbedonefromhome(althoughsomeinthisgroupmaystillbetravellingtowork).Coronavirusmaynotdiscriminateintermsofwhogetsill,butitclearlydoeshavedifferentialeconomicimpacts.Figure1showshowtheincomeshockiscurrentlybeingexperiencedacrosshousingtenures.F

9、IGURE1:ThecoronavirusincomeshockisexperienceddifferentlyacrosstenuresHousingtenureandabilitytowork,April2020:UK80%MortgagedownerPrivaterenterSocialrenter79%70%60%59%50%54%50%40%30%33%27%20%23%23%24%20%20%17%10%0%ThoseinsectorsdirectlyThoseunlikelytobeabletoThoseunlikelytobeabletoAllatriskaffected

10、bysocialworkwithschoolsclosedworkfromhomedistancingNOTES:Economicallyactiveindividualsonly.SOURCE:RFanalysisofONS,LabourForceSurvey.ResolutionFoundation

11、HousingOutlookTHERFHOUSINGOUTLOOK

12、QUARTERLYBRIEFINGQ220202Whileth

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