RF-英国-宏观策略-冠状病毒之后的英国劳动力市场-20200407.pdf

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1、SPOTLIGHTCrystalballsvsrear-viewmirrorsTheUKlabourmarketaftercoronavirus7April2020TorstenBell&HannahSlaughterSuddenandsignificanthitstotheUKlabourmarketinrecentweekshaveshownthatthiswillbeajobsrecession.Thefocushasrightlybeenonhowtorespondtothehugenumbersofpeoplelosingwork,butpolicymake

2、rsandpunditsarealsobeginningtoaskwhatthiscrisiscouldmeanforthelonger-termfutureofourlabourmarket.Whilemostdiscussionstakeaspeculativeapproachaboutchangesthatmightfollowthiscrisis,wearguethatpolicymakerswouldbebesttoconsidertheareasinwhichcurrentdevelopmentsrunalongsideactualorlatentpatt

3、ernsthatwerevisiblepre-crisis.Insteadofspeculatingaboutawholesaleconversiontodistanceworking,thisapproachpromptspolicymakerstofocusonthedeclineofourhighstreets;amajorchangeinourindustrialmixaslower-skilledmigrationdriesup;theneedtobettervaluetheworkdonebylowerearners;andtherealitythatyo

4、ungerworkersarebearingthebruntofthiscrisis,justastheydidduringthefinancialcrisis.Ontheotherhand,wenotethattheriseinself-employmentmaywellgointoreverseintheyearsaheadinthefaceofhigherperceivedriskandactualtaxation.Thoughthepaceofchangetoourlabourmarkethasbeenmuchfasterinrecentweeksthanan

5、yoneexpected,lookingintherear-viewmirrorisasimportantasstaringintoacrystalballwhenitcomestounderstandingwheretheworldofworkmightbeheadingbeyondthecrisis.CrystalballsarebeingbroughtoutaroundthecountrytoconsidertheUK’spost-coronaviruscrisisfuture.Thepredictionsthatfollowoftenfocusonthelab

6、ourmarket,understandablygiventhescaleandspeedoftheimpactofthecrisisuponit.Weareexperiencingmajorchangestohowsomepeople(generallyhigherearners)workandothers’(disproportionatelylowerearners)abilitytocontinuedoingso.Buttoooftenpredictionsaboutourfuturelabourmarketarebasedonwhatpeoplehaveal

7、waysthoughtwould,orshould,happenanyway.Theycomeinbothoptimisticandpessimisticvariants.Thoseinthelattercamppredictapermanentretreatfromrecordemployment,whilesomeintheformerarguethatthismassexperienceofworkingfrom1SPOTLIGHThomewillbringtoanendtheeraoftheofficeandusherinaneweraofd