PPP养老模式（英文版）.doc

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1、RiskAllocationinPPPprojectofAginginPlaceAGINGINPLACERiskIdentificationandRiskAllocationWAISAHMADBAHEEN201728035012RiskAllocationinPPPprojectofAginginPlaceContents1.Introduction22.Background:AginginPlaceinChina43.IdentifyingriskinPPPprojects5i.MacroRisk6ii.Mid-rangerisk7iii.Micro-Risk84.Allo

2、catingRiskinPPPAginginPlaceProject8a)Government9b)Socialcapitalparticipants9c)SharedRisk95.Conclusion106.References1112RiskAllocationinPPPprojectofAginginPlace1.IntroductionApublic-privatepartnershipisacooperativearrangementbetweentwoormorepublicandprivatesectors,typicallyofalong-termnature

3、(GraemeA.Hodge).PPPsofteninvolveacontractbetweenapublicsectorauthorityandaprivateparty,inwhichtheprivatepartyprovidesapublicserviceorprojectandassumessubstantialfinancial,technicalandoperationalriskintheproject.Public-privatepartnership(PPPs)areanincreasinglycommonmodelfordeliveringinfrastr

4、uctureprojectsglobally(Hovy).OneofthekeymotivationsforgovernmentstoprocureanddeliverInfrastructureprojectviaPPPmodelsistheassumptionthatPPPsdelivergreatervalueformoney(VFM)thanconventionaldeliverymethods.However,duetothelongconcessionperiodandlargeamountofinvestment,therisksassociatedwithPP

5、Pprojectsshouldnotbeunderestimated.Generally,riskmanagementincludes:riskidentification,riskassessmentandriskresponses(PMBOK,2004).AllocatingrisksinPPPs,however,isinherentlychallenging(Hovy).Risktransfertotheprivatesectorcomesataprice,andtransferringrisksthatthepublicagencyisbetterabletomana

6、geislikelytoerodeVFM.Chinaisfacingarapidgrowthofpeoplewhoseageis60yearsorabove,whichispredictedtodoubleoverthenextdecade.Bythe2014thenumberofelderlypeoplewhoseagewas60orabovehadreached210million.Andisprojectedtoexceed400millionoverthenextdecade,whichFigure1PercentageofOlderPopulation12RiskA

7、llocationinPPPprojectofAginginPlaceisanincreaseof28.7percent,from15.5percentasofyear2014.MorethanhalfofChineseelderlyagepeoplearelivingontheirown.Andthispercentageisevenhigherinthelargeandmediumcities.Accordingtoaresearchresult,about70percentofolderadult