布鲁金斯学会-美国经济再平衡（英文）-45页

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1、Revised4/16/2010RebalancingtheU.S.EconomyinaPost-CrisisWorldBarryBosworthandSusanCollinsPaperpreparedforthe“Trans-PacificRebalancing”ConferencejointlyorganizedbyAsianDevelopmentBankInstituteandTheBrookingsInstitution,March3-4,ADBI,TokyoAbstractTheobjectiveofthispa

2、peristoexplorehowtheexternalbalanceoftheUnitedStatesmightevolveinfutureyearsastheeconomyemergesfromtherecession.Weexaminetheissuebothfromthedomesticperspectiveofthesavingandinvestmentbalanceandfromtheexternalsideintermsofthebasicdeterminantsofexportsandimportsandt

3、heroleoftherealexchangerate.Usingthesetworespectiveperspectives,wehighlight(1)causesandconsequencesoflowprivateandpublicsavingintheUS,and(2)sensitivityoftradetovariationsintherealexchangerate.Wehighlighttheneedforsustaineddepreciationofthedollartoimprovethecompeti

4、tivenessofU.S.exportsandarguethatthecurrentexchangerateisconsistentwithasignificantreductioninthesizeofthetradedeficit.However,thefavorableexternaloutlookisveryinconsistentwithaprojecteddomesticsituationoflowratesofprivatesavingandaverylargepublicsectorbudgetdefic

5、itmatchedbyacyclicallydepressedrateofinvestment.ChangesinUScorporatetaxstructure,reconsiderationofcapitalcontrols,andperhapssomefurtherdeclineinthelevelofrealexchangeratescouldhelpsoftentheimpactofapotentiallyveryhardpost-recessionlandingfortheUnitedStates.JELCode

6、s:F32,F41,F42TheUnitedStateshashadasubstantialcurrentaccountdeficiteversincethemid-1990s.Formostofthatperiod,thedeficithasincreasedsteadily,reachingapeakof$800billionor6.7percentofnationalincomein2006.Therehasbeenwidespreadagreementthatdeficitsofthatmagnitudecould

7、notbesustained;thus,thereexistsapervasivefearthattheeconomymightbeheadingtowardahardlanding–withanabruptcollapseofthedollarandsevereeconomicdisruptionsbothdomesticallyandglobally.Inthefully-employedeconomyofthemid-decade,therebalancingoftheU.S.economywasviewedasar

8、elativelystraight-forward,thoughpoliticallydifficulttwo-prongedtask.Itwouldrequire:(1)changingthecompositionofdomesticdemandawayfromanover-emphasisondom