布鲁金斯学会-后危机时代美国经济再平衡（英文）-45页(2)

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1、Revised4/16/2010RebalancingtheU.S.EconomyinaPost-CrisisWorldBarryBosworthandSusanCollinsPaperpreparedforthe“Trans-PacificRebalancing”ConferencejointlyorganizedbyAsianDevelopmentBankInstituteandTheBrookingsInstitution,March3-4,ADBI,TokyoAbstractTheobjectiveofthispaperistoexplorehowtheexternalbalan

2、ceoftheUnitedStatesmightevolveinfutureyearsastheeconomyemergesfromtherecession.Weexaminetheissuebothfromthedomesticperspectiveofthesavingandinvestmentbalanceandfromtheexternalsideintermsofthebasicdeterminantsofexportsandimportsandtheroleoftherealexchangerate.Usingthesetworespectiveperspectives,we

3、highlight(1)causesandconsequencesoflowprivateandpublicsavingintheUS,and(2)sensitivityoftradetovariationsintherealexchangerate.WehighlighttheneedforsustaineddepreciationofthedollartoimprovethecompetitivenessofU.S.exportsandarguethatthecurrentexchangerateisconsistentwithasignificantreductioninthesi

4、zeofthetradedeficit.However,thefavorableexternaloutlookisveryinconsistentwithaprojecteddomesticsituationoflowratesofprivatesavingandaverylargepublicsectorbudgetdeficitmatchedbyacyclicallydepressedrateofinvestment.ChangesinUScorporatetaxstructure,reconsiderationofcapitalcontrols,andperhapssomefurt

5、herdeclineinthelevelofrealexchangeratescouldhelpsoftentheimpactofapotentiallyveryhardpost-recessionlandingfortheUnitedStates.JELCodes:F32,F41,F42每日免费获取报告1、每日微信群内分享5+最新重磅报告；2、每日分享当日华尔街日报；3、每周分享经济学人4、每月汇总1200+份当月重磅报告（增值服务）扫一扫二维码或加微信：qidianmax加入“起点财经”微信群，已有微信群的不用重复添加。备注：研究报告TheUnitedStateshashadasub

6、stantialcurrentaccountdeficiteversincethemid-1990s.Formostofthatperiod,thedeficithasincreasedsteadily,reachingapeakof$800billionor6.7percentofnationalincomein2006.Therehasbeenwidespreadagreementthatdeficitsofthatmagnitudecouldnotbesustained;thus,thereexistsapervasivefearthattheeconomymightbeheadi

7、ngtowardahardlanding–withanabruptcollapseofthedollarandsevereeconomicdisruptionsbothdomesticallyandglobally.Inthefully-employedeconomyofthemid-decade,therebalancingoftheU.S.economywasviewedasarelativelystraight-forward