policy—An overview of some key issues 人民币汇率政策.pdf

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1、Preliminary—toberevisedinlightofconferencepapersanddiscussantscomments.October10,2007China’sExchangeRatePolicy:AnOverviewofSomeKeyIssues*MorrisGoldsteinandNicholasLardySeniorFellowsPetersonInstituteforInternationalEconomicsPreparedfortheConferenceonChina’sExchangeRatePolicyPetersonInstituteforIntern

2、ationalEconomicsOctober19,2007*WeareindebtedtoDougDowsonandGiwonJeongforexcellentresearchassistance.1I.IntroductionMorethantwoyearshavepassedsinceChinaannouncedanumberofchangestoitsforeignexchangeregimeonJuly21,2005.Duringthisperiod,thedebateontheprosandconsofChina’sexchangeratepolicy,whichhadbeguni

3、nearnestseveralyearsearlier,intensified.Inthispaper,weseektoconveytheflavorofthatongoingdebatebyidentifyinganddiscussingseveralkeyissues.Thepaperisorganizedasfollows.ThissectionsimplysummarizesdevelopmentssincetheregimechangeinJuly2005.SectionIIthendiscussesfourkeychallengesfacingtheChineseauthoriti

4、esinlightoftheincreasinglyundervaluedexchangerateandtheacceleratingbuildupofforeignexchangereserves,namely:maintainingagradualpaceofcurrencyreformwhiletryingtousemonetarypolicyasaneffectiveinstrumentofmacroeconomicmanagement;reducingexcessiverelianceonexternaldemandtosustaineconomicgrowth;preventing

5、thedefenseofthepresentcurrencyregimefromhandicappingundulyeffortstostrengthenandtransformthebanksintotrulycommercialentities;andcontainingtheriskofprotectionismabroadinresponsetotheemergenceofChina’sverylargeglobalcurrentaccountsurplus.Finally,SectionIIIoffersabriefscorecardontheleadingoptionsforChi

6、na’sexchangeratepolicygoingforward,contrastingthefeaturesofa“staythecourse”policywiththatofabolder“threestage”approachthatseekstoreducemorerapidlythecurrentundervaluationoftherenminbi.RecentdevelopmentsChina’snewcurrencyregimeendedthefixednominalexchangeratevisavisthe1USdollar,whichtheauthoritiesado

7、ptedatthetimeoftheAsianfinancialcrisis.Theofficialbilateralrateappreciated2.1percent,movingtheratefrom8.28to8.11renminbitothedollar.BySeptember2007therenminbi:dollarbilateralratestoodat7.53,1Manyanaly