麦肯锡未来商业模式PDF.pdf

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1、USPSFutureBusinessModelMarch2,2010Contents!Recentcontext!Basecase–minimalmanagementactions!Addressingthechallenge!ShorttermrequirementsMcKinsey&Company

2、1RecentContextUSPSisexperiencingunprecedentedlossesNetprofit/lossKeydrivers$billionsNorateincreaseP

3、ostalAct2006signed!Revenuedeclinesdueto:2003-2006intolaw–E-diversionofFirst-ClassMail3.93.1–Down-tradingfrom1.40.9First-ClasstoStandardMail-0.2–Lossesofadvertising-0.7-1.7mailduetothe-2.8recession-3.8-5.1!RHBpre-funding-7.82requirementintroducedbytheP

4、AEA20000102030405060708092010!Costsavings,whilesubstantial,havebeen8.45.61.415.5lessthanrevenuedeclinesduetohighfixedcostsofRHBpre-funding,$billionsthenetworkNote:AllyearsinthisdocumentrefertoFiscalYearsendingonSept301Includesone-time$4billiondeferral

5、2Per2010IntegratedFinancialPlan(JanuaryYear-to-DateresultsarefavorabletoPlan)SOURCE:USPS;P.L.109-435(PAEA)McKinsey&Company

6、2RecentContextLosseshavebeendrivenbyvolumedeclines,RHBpre-fundingrequirementsandlimitationsoncostsavingsDriversofchangeinnetinco

7、me2006vs.2009$billions0.94.0-3.815.812.65.5FY2006RevenueRHBpre-CostsavingsRHBdeferralFY2009Netincomedecline1fundingNetincomerequirement!Volumedeclinesof17%,drivenby!Savingsdrivenby–E-substitution–Reductionofovertime–Adspendshifttootherchannels–Extreme

8、slow-downinhiring–Deeprecession–Routeconsolidation–Volumereduction1Revenuedeclinescalculatingbyapplying2009pricesagainst2006-09volumedeclinesSOURCE:USPS2006AnnualReport;USPS2010BudgetMcKinsey&Company

9、3RecentContextVolumedeclineshavebeenworsethanexpect

10、edwhenthecurrentlegalandregulatoryframeworkwasestablishedVolumeforecastsandactualsPAEAimplications1Billionsofpieces!WhenPAEAwaspassed,240Upsidevolumeprojectionsdidnotforecast230anticipatethecurrentscale220Basecase2005ofdeclinesforecastforecasts2210!PA

11、EAintroducedsome200additionalproductDownsideflexibility,butalsotwo190forecastcrucialrestrictions:180–Priceincreasescapped170ActualatCPIbyclass160–Significantpre-fundingrequirementsfor0RetireeHealthBenefits20030405060708092010(RHB)1PostalAccoun