Analyzing Fiscal Sustainability财政高效管理.pdf

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1、WorkingPaper/Documentdetravail2013-27AnalyzingFiscalSustainabilitybyHuixinBiandEricM.LeeperBankofCanadaWorkingPaper2013-27August2013AnalyzingFiscalSustainabilityby12HuixinBiandEricM.Leeper1InternationalEconomicAnalysisDepartmentBankofCanadaOttawa,Ontario,CanadaK1A0G9hbi@bankofcanada

2、.ca2IndianaUniversity,MonashUniversityandNBERBloomington,IN47405eleeper@indiana.eduBankofCanadaworkingpapersaretheoreticalorempiricalworks-in-progressonsubjectsineconomicsandfinance.Theviewsexpressedinthispaperarethoseoftheauthors.NoresponsibilityforthemshouldbeattributedtotheBankof

3、Canada.ISSN1701-9397©2013BankofCanada2AcknowledgementsWethankCraigBurnsideandMalikShukayevforinsightfuldiscussions,andparticipantsatthe2012JME-SNB-SCGconferenceformanyusefulcomments.iiAbstractTheauthorsstudytheimplicationsoffiscalpolicybehaviourforsovereignriskinaframeworkthatdeterm

4、inesacountry’sfiscallimit,thepointatwhich,foreconomicorpoliticalreasons,taxesandspendingcannolongeradjusttostabilizedebt.Arealbusinesscyclemodelmapstheeconomicenvironment—expectedfiscalpolicy,thedistributionofexogenousdisturbancesandprivateagents’behaviour—intoadistributionforthemax

5、imumsustainabledebt-to-GDPratio.Defaultispossibleatanypointonthisfiscallimitdistribution.CalibrationsofthemodeltoGreekandSwedishdataillustratehowtheframeworkcanbeusedtostudyactualfiscalreformsundertakenbydevelopedeconomiesfacingsovereignriskpressures.JELclassification:E62,E65,H63Ban

6、kclassification:Fiscalpolicy;EconomicmodelsRésuméLesauteursétudientlesimplicationsdelapolitiquebudgétairepourlerisquesouverainaumoyend’unmodèlequidéterminelalimitebudgétaired’unpays,c’est-à-direlepointàpartirduqueliln’estpluspossible,pourdesraisonséconomiquesoupolitiques,destabilise

7、rladettepubliqueenrajustantlesimpôtsetlesdépenses.Unmodèledecyclesréelstransposelecontexteéconomique–politiquebudgétaireattendue,distributiondeschocsexogènesetcomportementdesagentsprivés–enunedistributionderatiosdette/PIBviablesmaximaux.Unedéfaillanceestpossibleentoutpointdecettedis

8、tribution.Lemodèlee