巴菲特：股市长期回报优于黄金和债券.docx

《巴菲特：股市长期回报优于黄金和债券.docx》由会员上传分享，免费在线阅读，更多相关内容在行业资料-天天文库。

1、巴菲特：股市长期回报优于黄金和债券 EvenintheU.S.,wherethewishforastablecurrencyisstrong,thedollarhasfallenastaggering86%invaluesince1965,whenItookovermanagementofBerkshire.Ittakesnolessthan$7todaytobuywhat$1didatthattime.Consequently,atax-freeinstitutionwouldhaveneeded4.3%interestannuallyfrombondinvestme

2、ntsoverthatperiodtosimplymaintainitspurchasingpower.Itsmanagerswouldhavebeenkiddingthemselvesiftheythoughtofanyportionofthatinterestas"income."即使是在美国，政府强烈希望维持本币稳定，但是，我1965年接管伯克希尔哈撒韦以来，美元也已贬值高达86%。当年花1美元能买到的东西，今天至少要花7美元。因此，这些年来，一个免税机构须取得4.3%的债券投资年收益，才能保持购买力不变。假如管理层还将一切利息收入视为“收益”，他们一定是在开玩笑

3、。Fortaxpayinginvestorslikeyouandme,thepicturehasbeenfarworse.Duringthesame47-yearperiod,continuousrollingofU.S.Treasurybillsproduced5.7%annually.Thatsoundssatisfactory.Butifanindividualinvestorpaidpersonalincometaxesatarateaveraging25%,this5.7%returnwouldhaveyieldednothinginthewayofreali

4、ncome.Thisinvestor'svisibleincometaxwouldhavestrippedhimof1.4pointsofthestatedyield,andtheinvisibleinflationtaxwouldhavedevouredtheremaining4.3points.It'snoteworthythattheimplicitinflation"tax"wasmorethantripletheexplicitincometaxthatourinvestorprobablythoughtofashismainburden."InGodWeTr

5、ust"maybeimprintedonourcurrency,butthehandthatactivatesourgovernment'sprintingpresshasbeenalltoohuman.对于像你我这样的应税投资者，情况就更糟了。过去的四十七里，美国国债不断地滚动，年回报率5.7%。听起来好像还不错。但对于个人所得税率平均为25%的的个人投资者而言，这5.7%的回报率所能带来的实际收益是零。投资者缴纳的、可见的所得税将拿走上述回报率中的1.4个百分点，通胀因素这个隐形的“税种”将吞噬其余4.3个百分点。值得指出的是，尽管投资者可能认为显性的所得税是主要的

6、负担，但其实，隐形的通胀“税”是所得税的三倍还多。没错，每张美元上都印着“我们信仰上帝”这句话，但启动美国政府印钞机的是凡夫俗子的手。Highinterestrates,ofcourse,cancompensatepurchasersfortheinflationrisktheyfacewithcurrency-basedinvestments--andindeed,ratesintheearly1980sdidthatjobnicely.Currentrates,however,donotcomeclosetooffsettingthepurchasing-power

7、riskthatinvestorsassume.Rightnowbondsshouldcomewithawarninglabel. 当然，高利率能弥补依托于货币的投资工具所带来的通胀风险。而且，20世纪80年代初时的利率确实很好地做到了这一点。不过，要抵消消费者购买力面临的风险，当前的利率水平还差得远。因此，眼下应谨慎投资债券。Undertoday'sconditions,therefore,Idonotlikecurrency-basedinvestments.Evenso,Berkshireholdssignificantamount