中国的金融管制与经济结构失衡之相关性.pdf

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1、UNIVERSITYCODE:10246STUDENTID:102.106.80297THEROLEOFFINANCIALREPRESSIONINCHINAANDTHEECONOMICSTRUCTURALIMBALANCEMATHESISPresentedinPartialFulfillmentoftheRequirementfortheMasterDegreebytheGraduateSchoolofFudanUniversityByDumasDamas,RobertoFudanUniversity2012ThesisAdvisor:

2、(Xingming,Yin)Signature:ThesisCommittee:ApprovedbyProfessor:(Lastname,Firstname)Professor:(asabove)Professor:(asabove)Defensedate:April27，2012MAPrograminChineseEconomy指导小组成员名单殷醒民教授范剑勇教授何立新副教授陆前进副教授TABLEOFCONTENTSPageListofTablesiiiListofFiguresiiiListofDiagramsi

3、vAbstract1Introduction81.China'sGrowthModel131.a.FactorDistortions151.a.l.FiscalRecentxalizationin1994andGrowthatAnyCost171.b.LowerHouseholdIncome191.c.HigherInvestments,HigherICORandLowerEmploymentCreation222.ExchangeRateRegimeandImpossibleTrinity332.a.China

4、'sExchangeRatePolicy-HistoricalDevelopments342’b.HowIndependentistheChineseMonetaryPolicy?363.BankingSystem,Non-PerformingLoansandFinancialRepression473.a.TheRoleoftheState:TheInfluenceonDecision-Making503.b.Non-PerformingLoans(NPLs)543.c.FinancialRepression:TheRo

5、leofInterestRates573.d.WhatRaisingNPLsHaveToDoWithConsumption?594.EconometricAnalysis644.a.DefinitionofFinancialRepression664.b.BaselineModel674.c.FinancialRepression,InterestIncomeandEconomicStructuralTransformation:EmpiricalEvidence725ConclusionandPolicyRecomme

6、ndations75i>■Bibliography77DedicationgjAcknowledgment82Vita8311LISTOFTABLESTablePageTable1;EstimatedFactorCostDistortionsinChina,2000-2009(percentGDP)16Table2:SourcesofChineseGrowth26Table3:JobCreation,GDPGrowthandURBANEmploymentElasticity29Table4:China'sBalance

7、ofPayments(USDmn)37Table5:OpenMarketOperationsandReserveRequirementManipulationasMeansofSterilization40Table6:AnnualHouseholdIncomeTransferduetoFinancialRepression(percentGDP)62Table7:ExpectedSignoftheCoefficients72Table8:SummaryRegressionResults73LISTOFFIGURESFigure

8、PageFigure1:Investments(percentageofGDP)vsConsumption(percentageofGDP)14Figure2:ContributionstoGrowth