全球市场策略与展望(中英文).doc

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1、指久期加权债券Afterafewfairlyquietmonths,volatilityreturnedwithsomeforceinJune.Mostoftheactionwasinbondsratherthanequities,butallfinancialmarketsexperiencedgyrations.ThetwothemesthatplayedoutoverJunewerestrongglobalgrowthandconcernsovertheUShousingmarket・Astheseissuesareinconf

2、lictwithoneanother,marketsexperieneedvolatility.Solidglobalgrowthisgoodforequitiesascorporateprofitswillbestrongbutbadforbondsasgrowtheventuallywindsitswayintohigherinflation.经过几个刀的平静，6刀的市场恢复以往的波动。虽然大多数的振荡发生在债券市场而非股票市场，但是整个金融市场表现出一种上卜-起伏的回旋状态。6刀的市场有两大主题：强势的全球增长以及对美国房地产市

3、场的关注。由于这两大主题Z间存在矛盾，市场出现不安定的波动状态。全球经济稳步增长对股票有良好推动作用，企业町从中获益，但也因此最终将导致通货膨胀率的上升，从而对债券不利。OverthefirstfortnightofJune,aspositiveeconomicdatawasreleased,bondssoldoffandequitiesrallied.InthemiddleofthemonthnewsbrokethatacoupleofhedgefundsmanagedbyBearSternsthatareinvestedintos

4、ecuritieslinkedtoUSsub-primemortgageswereeithergoingtogobustorwouldneedsubstantialrescuing.ThisrevivedtheconcerninthemarketsthatthedragfromUShousingislikelytospreadinaverynegativewayacrosstheUSeconomyandcouldultimatelydamageglobalgrowth.Bondsmanagedtorallyoverthesecondp

5、artofJunewhilstequitiessoldoff-在6月的前两周，由于利好经济数据的公布，债券跳水，股票走高。但是6月中旬,消息传出山贝尔斯登(BearSterns)所管理的两支对冲基金因为其投资了与美国次级抵押债券挂钩的有价证券而而临破产,这使得整个市场重牛•美国房地产的不景气将会阻碍美国经济发展、并会最终损害全球经济增长的担忧。因此，债券在6月下旬走强而股票遭到抛售。OurviewcontinuestobethatUShousingweaknesswillbeamajordragonUSgrowththisyearbu

6、ttheriskofUSrecessionasaresultofthehousingdownturnisverylow.ThereasonforthisisthatUShousingwhilstimportant,representsonly5%oftheeconomy,andassuchisnotlargeenoughtodragthewholeeconomydown.Manycommentatorspointtotheflowonrisktoconsumptionfromafallinhouseprices,whichisclea

7、rlyabigissue.我们仍然认为美国房产业的疲弱将会在今年成为阻碍全美经济增长的主耍因素，但由于房地产的低迷而导致美国整体经济衰追的风险很低。原因是，尽管美国房产业很重耍,但是其仅占全美经济的5%,因此，从数量上并不足以拖慢整体经济的发展速度。很多评论认为房价走低将会导致消费出现低迷，显然这倒是一个大问题。However,whilstconsumptionisrelatedtowealthlevelsandassetprices,itisfarmoredrivenbyincomegrowthandemployment.Incom

8、eandemploymentinturnareafunctionofbusinessinvestment.Ifbusinessesincreasespendingoncapacity,theywillalsobeaddi