全球金属展望报告

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1、MetalsOutlookPresentationGlobalCommoditiesResearchNatashaKanevaGregoryShearerExecutiveDirectorVicePresident(1-212)834-3175(44-20)7134-8161natasha.kaneva@jpmorgan.comgregory.c.shearer@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAJ.P.MorganSecuritiesplcGlobalCommoditiesResearchMarch2019METALSOUTLOOKPRESENTATIO

2、NSeetheendpagesofthispresentationforimportantdisclosures.J.P.Morgandoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactori

3、nmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.1Imagesources:UCRusal,WorldGoldCouncil,Glencoreplc,Nornickel.Usedwithpermission.Thesoftpatchinglobalgrowthlookslikelytopersistatleastthroughmid-year,butthedovishturnsbymajorcentralbanksandincreasinglyaggressivepolicysupportfromChinahasfuelledexpectationsofanimprove

4、dgrowthprofile.Somesignsofstabilizationhaveemergedinrecentmonths,butthedataflowremainschoppy.J.P.MorganRealGDPForecastRevisionIndexIndex,4Jan2002=100;Changesreflect%-pointrevisionto4-quarterrollingpercentchangeforecastJ.P.MorganEconomicActivitySurpriseIndexPercent92.589.789.592.790.189.992.990.3

5、93.190.790.593.391.190.993.5EM(RHS)GlobalDM91.393.791.5-30-20-1001020EASIGlobalEASIEMEASIDM30METALSOUTLOOKPRESENTATIONJan-17Mar-17May-17Jul-17Sep-17Nov-17Jan-18Mar-18May-18Jul-18Sep-18Nov-18Jan-19Mar-19Jan-18Feb-18Mar-18Apr-18May-18Jun-18Jul-18Aug-18Sep-18Oct-18Nov-18Dec-18Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Sour

6、ce:J.P.MorganSource:J.P.Morgan22520151050-5-10-15-20-25Industrialmetalshaveanticipatedstabilizationintheglobalgrowthmomentum.Morespecifically,atcurrentspotlevels,metalsaretradingata~20%premiumtothecurrentglobalPMIof50.6.Thispremiumisrare,occurringonlythreetimesinthelasttenyears:1H08,mid-2011ande

7、arly2015.Inallcases,itwasaprecursorforlowerprices.BloombergIndustrialMetalsSubindexTRpremium/discounttoglobalmanufacturingPMIPercentMETALSOUTLOOKPRESENTATIONJan-14Mar-14May-14Jul-14Sep-14Nov-14Jan-15Mar-15May-15Jul-15Sep-15N