美国跨行业展望2020:2020年愿景

美国跨行业展望2020:2020年愿景

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时间:2020-01-06

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1、USCrossSectorOverview2020Outlook2020Visions

2、SearchingforreturninayieldhungryworldNorthAmericaSecuritizedProductsResearch26November2019Note:ThispieceispartoftheUSFixedIncomeMarkets2020Outlook,featuringourstrategists’viewsontheyearaheadacrossassetclasses.TableofCont

3、ents

4、PDF·2020Visions:2020shouldbeaweakeryearforbondreturnsbutgenerallygoodforspreadproducts.Netbondsupplyissettofall18%,ledbyadropininvestibleTreasuriesandHGcorporates.·FOMCandrates:TheFed’s2019focusonriskmanagementwillcarryover.Welookforonemore25bpeasein2Q20butthi

5、nkthatimprovinggrowthwillpushTreasuryyieldsmodestlyhigher/steeperin2H.TheFed’sbillpurchaseswilllikelylowershort-termTreasuryyieldsandreporates.CashinflowsintoMMFsshouldalsoremainstrong.Fundingspreadsarelikelytonarrow.·Richassetsanddesperationforyield:Withover$13tni

6、nnegativeyieldingsovereigndebt,bondvaluationsarerichandmaygetricher.AcombinationofglobalQE,lowerdemandforcapital,anddemographicsarealllong-termtailwindsforspreadproducts.·Globalcreditmarketsandthecaseforspreadproduct:Thecollapseofthecreditcycleisnotathand,inourview

7、.Companiesarelikelytofocuslessongrowththanonlivingwithintheircashflow.Spreadproductsshouldoutperformratesin2020.CorporateshaveanadvantageoverMBSowingtocarryandrolldown.·SOFRascendant:WhilebenchmarkreformeffortsaregenerallyrunningatoraheadoftheARRC’stransitionplan,s

8、omuchofwhatremainstobedonemustbedonein2020inpreparationforwhatcouldhappenthefollowingyear.Wehighlighttheimpactacrossassetclasses.·Tradingthemes:Webreakdownthefixedincomeuniversebydurationandassetclassandofferourtoppicksacrossproducts.USFixedIncomeStrategyMatthewJo

9、zoffAC(1-212)834-3121matthew.j.jozoff@jpmorgan.comAlexRoeverAC(1-212)834-3316alex.roever@jpmorgan.comStephenDulake(1-212)834-9671stephen.dulake@jpmorgan.comRyanJLessing(1-212)834-5063ryan.j.lessing@jpmorgan.comJ.P.MorganSecuritiesLLCSeepage25foranalystcertification

10、andimportantdisclosures.www.jpmorganmarkets.comUSCrossSectorOverview·2020Visions:2020shouldbeaweakeryearforbondreturnsbutgenerallygoodforspreadp

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