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1、GlobalInflationOutlook2020BroadlybullishbreakevensGlobalRatesStrategy29November2019·Globalthemes:Long5Yx5YHICP,5s/30sUKRPIcurveflatteners,bullishbiasonfrontendTIPS,long3YAustralianbreakevens·IntheEuroarea,weexpectcoreinflationtogrindhigherto1.4%oyaattheendof2020.In
2、flationmarketsaretoopessimisticinourviewandgiventheempiricalconvexitywiththelevelofnominalrateswerecommendenteringlongsin5Yx5YHICPswapsasamediumtermview·Inbondspace,webelievethesearchforyieldenvironmentandsupportfromnetQEwillkeepIOTAsattightlevels.WestaylongBTPei28o
3、nanIOTAbasis·IntheUK,weexpectthecurrencyandRPIreformtoremainkeydriversforbreakevensover2020.Wehaveabullishbiason1Yx1YRPIgiventhepotentialforrenewedBrexitcliffedgerisksin2020followingaConservativemajorityattheelection.Weareneutralon10YRPIgivenvaluationslookinlinewith
4、highfrequencydrivers·Wehaveabullishbiason1Yx1YRPIgiventhepotentialforrenewedcliffedgerisksin2020.Weareneutralon10YRPIgivenvaluationslookinlinewithhighfrequencydrivers.Werecommend5s/30sbreakevencurveflatteners·InSweden,wehaveanarrowingbiason10YSweden/Germanycrossmark
5、etbreakevenspread·IntheUS,lookingaheadto2020,wethinkthatbreakevensarelikelytotradenearcurrentlevelsthroughthefirstquarterbeforewideningoverthebalanceoftheyear,asglobalgrowthliftsmodestlyabovetrend·TheFedislikelytoadoptavaguenotionofaverageinflationtargeting,whichwed
6、on’tthinkwillbemetwithimmediatecredibilitybutshouldhelpfront-endcheapnesstofadeoverthemediumterm·Intermsoftradingthemeswe:1)lookformodestlywiderTIPSbreakevensin2020,ledbythefrontend.Front-endbreakevensarewell-underpricedversusourforecastsforinflationandimpliedforwar
7、drealratestoohighgiventhecurrentpolicybackdrop,2)positionforasteeper5s/10srealyieldcurve,3)favorcashbreakevensoverinflationswapscomingoutofyear-end·InAustralia,inflationisforecasttopickupandaverage2%oyain2020asdroughtrelatedfoodinflation,recentRBAeasingandtheanticip
8、ateddepreciationinthecurrencyculminateinsomemodestinflationpressure.FrontendbreakevenslookattractiveandwerecommendlongsinACGB2022breakeven
