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1、Retirementage陈颖2012.11.19Whytoextendtheretirementage1.LifeexpectancyisextendedPopulationstructurehaschangedAgingpopulationsiscoming2.ShortageofpensionsLifeexpectancy---anticipatedagePopulationstructureandagingpopulationIn1999,thepopulationabovesixtyyearsoldis130milli
2、on,10.2%ofthetotalpopulation.By2010,thenumberis178million,13.26%ofthetotalpopulation.Whenitcomesto2050,wewillhave480millionpeopleagingsixtyandabove,1/3ofthetotalpopulationandbecomingoneofthecountrieswhichhavethehighestagingpopulation.By2050,thelaborforcebetween15and5
3、9willdeclineto710million,230millionlesserthan2010.PopulationstructureandagingpopulationWewillhave1.4billionpeoplein2040.ThenumberofPeopleoversixtyis411million.Peoplebetween20and60willdeclinefrom817millionto696million.Peoplebetween20and40willdeclinefrom436millionto302
4、million,fallingbymorethan30%By2050,thegenerationafter80’sand90’swillbe“youngeroldmen”,therewillbe100million’s“elderoldmen”over80yearsold.AboutthepensionsThreeparameters:Replacementrate(替代率):thepensionyougetaftertheretirementaccountsforhowmuchofyoursalaryonthejobPayme
5、ntrate(缴费率):howmuchmoneyyoushouldpayforyourpensioninsuranceaccordingtoyoursalaryRetirementageAboutthepensionsReplacementrate:below50%(average),above80%(utility)Paymentrate:28%Retirementage:60(men)50(women)ConstitutionofpensioninsuranceIndividualaccountorpersonalaccou
6、nt(emptyaccountanddevalue)SocialpoolingaccountShortageofpension(Individualaccount)Bytheendof2011,thebookvalueoftheindividualaccountis2.5trillion,buttheamountoftheemptyaccountis2.23trillion.From2000to2010,thepensioninsurancefundisputintothebankwithaninterestrateof1.8%
7、,whichmeansthepensionhasbeendevaluedbymorethan0.6trillionWhatdoesitmeantoextendtheretirementage?Extendingtheretirementageforoneyearmeans20billion’spension.However,lastyear,thecountryhadfinanced200billionforthepension.Thatistosay,extendingtheretirementagecanjustrelaxt
8、hepressureoftheshortageofpensiontoasmallextent.MeasurestoextendtheretirementageMakingpeopleabove16yearsold,not18yearsoldtopaythepe