新华制药分析报告

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1、新华制药分析报告000756课程名称：投资学姓名:虞玉姣学号:51143001096班级：2014级金融专硕一指数模型分析31.1股票超额收益率计算31.2与三级行业平均值比较51.3与市场指数比较111.4指数模型回归161.5a估计171.60估计171.70调整17二基本面分析182.1公司介绍182.2产品分析182.3同行业分析202.3.1行业地位比较202.3.2盈利能力比较212.3.3偿债能力比较242.3.4成长能力比较262.3.5股利政策比较262.4竞争优势272.5风险分

2、析272.6发展战略282.6.1拓展制剂产品282.6.2拓展医药电商业务282.6.3进一步降低成本292.6.4总体趋稳战略292.7投资建议29指数模型分析1.1股票超额收益率计算2010.1-2015.5新华制药的股价月度数据及月度无风险利率的数据来H国泰安数据库，具体如下表所示。由收盘价和开盘价可计算出新华制药每月的收益率，然后减去每月相应的无风险收益率，就是它的超额收益率。交易月份月开盘价月收盘价新华制药收益率月度无风险利率新华制药超额收益率2010-01&449.138.1754%0

3、.1856%7.9898%2010-029.148.99-1.6411%0.1856%-1.8267%2010-0399.151.6667%0.1856%1.4811%2010-049.22&77-4.8807%0.1856%-5.0663%201005&677.88■9.1119%0.1856%-9.2975%2010-067.796.61-15.1476%0.1856%-15.3332%2010-076.567.219.9085%0.1856%9.7229%2010-087.19811.2656

4、%0.1856%11.0800%2010-098&121.5000%0.1856%1.3144%2010108.18&291.3447%0.1935%1.1512%2010-118.36&62.8708%0.2060%2.6648%2010-128.477.67-9.4451%0.2099%-9.6550%2011-017.77.26-5.7143%0.2263%-5.9406%2011-027.257.9810.0690%0.2448%9.8242%2011-037.987.7-3.5088%0.

5、2466%-3.7554%2011-047.77.781.0390%0.2635%0.7754%2011-057.797.15-8.2157%0.2669%-8.4826%2011-067.167.636.5642%0.2669%6.2973%2011-077.637.25-4.9803%0.2832%-5.2635%2011-087.267-3.5813%0.2871%-3.8684%2011-0976.61-5.5714%0.2871%-5.8585%2011-106.666.923.9039%

6、0.2871%3.6168%2011-116.896.45-6.3861%0.2871%-6.6732%2011-126.65.25-20.4545%0.2871%-20.7416%2012-015.335.18-2.8143%0.2871%-3.1014%2012-025.185.7410.8108%0.2871%10.5237%2012-035.715.26-7.8809%0.2871%-8.1680%2012-045.245.668.0153%0.2871%7.7282%2012-055.72

7、5.56-2.7972%0.2871%-3.0843%2012-065.555.25-5.4054%0.2716%-5.6770%2012-075.264.65-11.5970%0.2499%-11.8468%2012-084.664.782.5751%0.2466%2.3285%2012-094.764.64-2.5210%0.2466%-2.7676%2012-104.644.58-1.2931%0.2466%-1.5397%2012-114.574.12-9.8468%0.2466%-10.0

8、934%2012-124.094.428.0685%0.2466%7.8219%2013-014.434.634.5147%0.2466%4.2681%2013-024.644.793.2328%0.2466%2.9862%2013-034.85.3210.8333%0.2466%10.5867%2013-045.324.61-13.3459%0.2466%-13.5925%2013-054.625.089.9567%0.2466%9.7101%2013-065.09