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1、TheValueofFinancialSystemReforminChinaandIndiaDianaFarrell,DirectorMcKinseyGlobalInstituteJanuary,2007AGENDAChina’sFinancialSystemIndia’sFinancialSystem1CHINAFINDINGSChinahasmadesteadyadvancesinmodernizingitsfinancialsystemandinmobilizingsavings,reflecte
2、dinthedoublingofChina’sstockoffinancialassetsrelativetoGDPoverthepasttenyears.China’sbankingsectorplaysanunusuallylargeroleinitsfinancialsystem.Capitalallocationinthesystemispoor:whollyandpartiallystate-ownedcompaniescontinuetoabsorbmostofthefundingfromt
3、hefinancialsystem,whileprivateenterprise,theengineofChina’sgrowth,receivesadisproportionatelysmallshare.Asaresult,China’sinvestmentefficiencyisdeclining.Thedominantbanksector,thoughimproving,remainshighlyinefficientandpotentiallyvulnerable.Reformsthatena
4、blealargershareoffundingtogotothemostproductivecompaniesandimprovedtheoperatingefficiencyoffinancialsystemcomponentswouldraiseGDPby$321billionannually,or17percent.China’sfinancialsystem’sremainingproblemsareintricatelylinkedacrossitscomponentmarkets,andw
5、illthereforerequireanintegratedapproachtoreform.2Note:China’sdepthwouldbeat220%ofGDPin2004accordingtorecentGDPrestatement.Itisunclearhownew GDPcalculationmethodologywouldaffectChina’s1994GDP.Source:WEFA;BIS;FIBV;WDI;IMF;GFS;McKinseyGlobalInstituteanalysi
6、s.Stockofbankdeposits,bondsandequity,2004PercentofGDPGDPpercapita(atpurchasingpowerparity),2004US$,logarithmicscaleCHINA’SFINANCIALSYSTEMDEPTHISHIGHGIVENITS GDPPERCAPITA1994-2004evolutionforselectcountriesPositionin2004MalaysiaSingaporeSouthKoreaIndiaBra
7、zilMexicoJapanUnitedStatesUnitedKingdomChinaSouthAfricaChileThailandNorwayNewZealandEgyptPhilippinesHungaryTurkeyIndonesiaRussianFederationTunisiaUnitedArabEmiratesUkraineVietnamAustraliaSwedenCanadaTaiwanFinlandCzechRepublicSaudiArabiaNascentEmergingMat
8、ure3CHINA’SFINANCIALSYSTEMISDOMINATEDBYTHEBANKINGSECTOR2004financialstockcomponentsPercent,US$billion100%=CAGR21994–2004PercentNote:Numbersmaynotaddto100percentduetorounding.1ReflectsChina’srecentlyrestatedGDP.2CAGR=compou
