货币银行学-第5章

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1、Chapter5TheBehaviourofInterestRates利率分析方法之比较存量（分析）：存量是指某一经济量在某一时间点上的值，只能在某个时点上衡量，即他的定量没有时间范围。流量（分析）：指在一定时期内某种经济变量变动的数值，它只能在一定时期内衡量，定量要有时间范围。关系：存量分析中使用时点均衡分析法，强调经济系统的瞬间均衡，就不能揭示流量的波动；承认流量的波动，存量均衡就受到破坏。5-2利率决定理论的发展古典利率决定理论魏克赛尔的累计利率理论流动性偏好理论罗伯特森可贷资金理论。5-35-4DeterminantsofAssetDemand5-5Deri

2、vationofBondDemandCurve(债券需求价格的推导）(F–P)i=RETe=PPointA:P=$950($1000–$950)i==0.053=5.3%$950Bd=$100billion5-6DerivationofBondDemandCurvePointB:P=$900($1000–$900)i==0.111=11.1%$900Bd=$200billionPointC:P=$850,i=17.6%Bd=$300billionPointD:P=$800,i=25.0%Bd=$400billionPointE:P=$750,i=33.0%Bd=$5

3、00billionDemandCurveisBdinFigure1whichconnectspointsA,B,C,D,E.Hasusualdownwardslope5-7DerivationofBondSupplyCurve（债券供给曲线的推导）PointF:P=$750,i=33.0%,Bs=$100billionPointG:P=$800,i=25.0%,Bs=$200billionPointC:P=$850,i=17.6%,Bs=$300billionPointH:P=$900,i=11.1%,Bs=$400billionPointI:P=$950,i=5.

4、3%,Bs=$500billionSupplyCurveisBsthatconnectspointsF,G,C,H,I,andhasupwardslope5-8SupplyandDemandAnalysisoftheBondMarketMarketEquilibrium1.OccurswhenBd=Bs,atP*=$850,i*=17.6%2.WhenP=$950,i=5.3%,Bs>Bd(excesssupply):PtoP*,itoi*3.WhenP=$750,i=33.0,Bd>Bs(excessdemand):PtoP*,itoi*5-9Loana

5、bleFundsTerminology（可贷资金术语）1.Demandforbonds=supplyofloanablefunds2.Supplyofbonds=demandforloanablefunds5-10ShiftsintheBondDemandCurve（需求曲线的位移）5-11FactorsthatShifttheBondDemandCurve（导致债券需求曲线位移的因素）1.WealthA.Economygrows,wealth,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright2.ExpectedReturnA.iinfuture,Reforlong

6、-termbonds,BdshiftsouttorightB.e,RelativeRe,BdshiftsouttorightC.Expectedreturnofotherassests,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright3.RiskA.Riskofbonds,Bd,BdshiftsouttorightB.Riskofotherassets,Bd,Bdshiftsouttoright4.LiquidityA.LiquidityofBonds,Bd,BdshiftsouttorightB.Liquidityofotherassets,B

7、d,Bdshiftsouttoright5-12FactorsthatShiftDemandCurveforBonds5-13ShiftsintheBondSupplyCurve(债券供给曲线的位移）1.ProfitabilityofInvestmentOpportunitiesBusinesscycleexpansion,investmentopportunities,Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright2.ExpectedInflatione,Bs,Bsshiftsouttoright3.GovernmentActivitiesDefici