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1、JournalofEconomicPerspectives—Volume20,Number3—Summer2006—Pages173–185AnEconomicEvaluationoftheMoneyballHypothesisJahnK.HakesandRaymondD.Sauernhis2003bookMoneyball,financialreporterMichaelLewismadeastrikingclaim:thevaluationofskillsinthemarketforbaseballplayerswasgros
2、slyIinefficient.ThediscrepancywassolargethatwhentheOaklandAthleticshiredanunlikelymanagementgroupconsistingofBillyBeane,aformerplayerwithmediocretalent,andtwoquantitativeanalysts,theteamwasabletoexploitthisinefficiencyandoutproducemostofthecompetition,whileoperatingona
3、shoe-stringbudget.ThepublicationofMoneyballtriggeredafirestormofcriticismfrombaseballinsiders(Lewis,2004),anditraisedtheeyebrowsofmanyeconomistsaswell.Basicpricetheoryimpliesatightcorrespondencebetweenpayandproductivitywhenmarketsarecompetitiveandrichininformation,asw
4、ouldseemtobethecaseinbaseball.Themarketforbaseballplayersreceivesdailyattentionfromtheprintandbroadcastmedia,alongwithperiodicin-depthanalysisfromlifelongbaseballexpertsandacademiceconomists.Indeed,acasecanbemadethatmoreisknownaboutpayandquantifiedperformanceinthismar
5、ketthaninanyotherlabormarketintheAmericaneconomy.Inthispaper,wetestthecentralportionofLewis’s(2003)argumentwithelementaryeconometrictoolsandconfirmhisclaims.Inparticular,wefindthathitters’salariesduringthisperioddidnotaccuratelyreflectthecontributionofvariousbattingskil
6、lstowinninggames.Thisinefficiencywassufficientlylargethatknowledgeofitsexistence,andtheabilitytoexploitit,enabledtheOaklandAthleticstogainasubstantialadvantageovertheircompetition.Further,wefindyJahnK.HakesisAssistantProfessorofEconomicsandManagement,AlbionCollege,Albio
7、n,Michigan.RaymondD.SauerisProfessorofEconomics,ClemsonUniversity,Clemson,SouthCarolina.Theire-mailaddressesarejhakes@albion.eduandsauerr@clemson.edu,respectively.174JournalofEconomicPerspectivesthat,evenwhilevariousbaseballinterestsdenouncedBeaneandLewisascharla
8、tansinastreamofmediareports,marketadjustmentswereinmotion(fordiscussion,seeLewis,2004;Craggs,2005).Theseadjustmentstookplacearoundt
