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1、AustraliaPerspectivesOctober2013AdamBoweandRobertMeadYourGlobalInvestmentAuthorityTaperTime–Mining,ThatIsWhiletheFederalReservegetstochoosewhentoslowthepaceofbalancesheetexpansionintheU.S.,orwhento“taper,”Australiadoesnothavetheluxuryofcontrollingthebalancesheetfortheminingsector.Overthepast12y
2、ears,mininginvestmentasashareofGDPhasrisensixfoldtonearly7%(Figure1),butrecentdatasuggestthatthisbalancesheetistapering,withthesectordetractingfromrealgrowthinthefirsthalfof2013.Toencourageanewbalancesheettostepforward,theReserveBankofAustralia(RBA)willhavetokeepinterestrateslowforanextendedper
3、iod,inourview,andlikelylowerthemfurthertohelpsmooththetransitionawayfrommining-assistedgrowthoverthecyclicalhorizon.Whichbalancesheet,ifany,willstepup?WebelieveAustraliafacesthreegrowthoptionsoverthenextyear,allwithdistinctlydifferentpolicyandAdamBowe,CFAfinancialmarketoutcomes−scenariosthatcou
4、ldbecalledthegood,theSeniorVicePresidentPortfolioManagerbadandtheugly.FIGURE1:TAPERTIME87654RobertMead,CFA3ManagingDirectorPercent(%)2PortfolioManager10JunJunJunJunJunJunJunJunJunJunJunJunJunJun‘77‘80‘83‘86‘89‘92‘95‘98‘01‘04‘07‘10‘13‘16Mininginvestmentasa%ofGDP1977-2000averageSource:Haver,asof3
5、0June2013Mininginvestmentestimatedasnewengineeringconstruction.GrowthandtaperoftheminingsectorFIGURE3:MININGBALANCESHEETWASSUPPORTINGBetween2003and2012,theglobalminingsectorisDOMESTICGROWTHestimatedtohaveinvestedA$284billioninnewprojectsorexpansionsofexistingcapacityinAustralia.(See“Funding39th
6、eAustralianResourceInvestmentBoom”,RBABulletin,2.5March2013.)Importantly,asignificantportionofthis26investmenthasbeenfundedbyforeignentities.AsFigure21.5shows,therehasbeenclosetoa50/50splitbetween13domesticandforeignentities,with46%ofthisinvestmentPercent(%)0.5Percent(%)financedfromoffshore.00-
7、0.5FIGURE2:FUNDINGOFTHEMININGSECTOR’S-1-3MarJunSepDecMarJunSepDecMarJunBALANCESHEETEXPANSION(BILLIONAUD)‘85‘88‘91‘94‘98‘01‘04‘07‘11‘14ForeignMiningInvestment4qtrContributiontoGDP(lhs)Other,$9FinalDomesticDemandY/Y(rhs)Source:Haver
