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1、TheEndofHistory?*FrancisFukuyama**INWATCHINGtheflowofeventsoverthepastdecadeorso,itishardtoavoidthefeelingthatsomethingveryfundamentalhashappenedinworldhistory.ThepastyearhasseenafloodofarticlescommemoratingtheendoftheColdWar,andthefactthat"peace"seemstobebreakingoutinmanyregionsof
2、theworld.Mostoftheseanalyseslackanylargerconceptualframeworkfordistinguishingbetweenwhatisessentialandwhatiscontingentoraccidentalinworldhistory,andarepredictablysuperficial.IfMr.GorbachevwereoustedfromtheKremlinoranewAyatollahproclaimedthemillenniumfromadesolateMiddleEasterncapita
3、l,thesesamecommentatorswouldscrambletoannouncetherebirthofaneweraofconflict.Andyet,allofthesepeoplesensedimlythatthereissomelargerprocessatwork,aprocessthatgivescoherenceandordertothedailyheadlines.Thetwentiethcenturysawthedevelopedworlddescendintoaparoxysmofideologicalviolence,asl
4、iberalismcontendedfirstwiththeremnantsofabsolutism,thenbolshevismandfascism,andfinallyanupdatedMarxismthatthreatenedtoleadtotheultimateapocalypseofnuclearwar.Butthecenturythatbeganfullofself-confidenceintheultimatetriumphofWesternliberaldemocracyseemsatitsclosetobereturningfullcirc
5、letowhereitstarted:nottoan"endofideology"oraconvergencebetweencapitalismandsocialism,asearlierpredicted,buttoanunabashedvictoryofeconomicandpoliticalliberalism.ThetriumphoftheWest,oftheWesternidea,isevidentfirstofallinthetotalexhaustionofviablesystematicalternativestoWesternliberal
6、ism.Inthepastdecade,therehavebeenunmistakablechangesintheintellectualclimateoftheworld'stwolargestcommunistcountries,andthebeginningsofsignificantreformmovementsinboth.ButthisphenomenonextendsbeyondhighpoliticsanditcanbeseenalsointheineluctablespreadofconsumeristWesterncultureinsuc
7、hdiversecontextsasthepeasants'marketsandcolortelevisionsetsnowomnipresentthroughoutChina,thecooperativerestaurantsandclothingstoresopenedinthepastyearinMoscow,theBeethovenpipedintoJapanesedepartmentstores,andtherockmusicenjoyedalikeinPrague,Rangoon,andTehran.Whatwemaybewitnessingis
8、notjusttheendoftheColdWar,
