and Scenario Analyses of Low-Carbonlow情景分析

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1、energiesArticleDecomposedDrivingFactorsofCarbonEmissionsandScenarioAnalysesofLow-CarbonTransformationin2020and2030forZhejiangProvinceChuyuXia1,2ID,YanLi1,2,*,YanmeiYe1,2,ZhouShi3andJingmingLiu41InstituteofLandScienceandProperty,SchoolofPublicAffairs,ZhejiangUniversity,Hangzhou310058,China;

2、xiachuyu1992@126.com(C.X.);yeyanmei@zju.edu.cn(Y.Y.)2LaboratoryofRural-UrbanConstructionLandEconomicalandIntensiveUse,MinistryofLandandResources,Beijing100812,China3InstituteofAgriculturalRemoteSensingandInformationTechnologyApplication,CollegeofEnvironmentalandResourceSciences,ZhejiangUni

3、versity,Hangzhou310058,China;shizhou@zju.edu.cn4SchoolofPublicPolicyandAdministrationDepartmentofPublicAdministration,Xi’anJiaoTongUniversity,Xi’an710049,China;jingmingmary@126.com*Correspondence:liyan522@zju.edu.cn;Tel.:+86-571-5666-2139AcademicEditor:VincenzoDovìReceived:9September2017;A

4、ccepted:26October2017;Published:31October2017Abstract:Climatechangehasgainedwidespreadattention,andtherapidgrowthoftheeconomyinChinahasgeneratedaconsiderableamountofcarbonemissions.ZhejiangProvincewasselectedasastudyarea.First,theenergy-relatedcarbonemissionsfrom2000to2014wereaccountedfor,

5、andthentheLogarithmicMeanDivisiaIndex(LMDI)decompositionmodelwasappliedtoanalysethedrivingfactorsunderlyingthecarbonemissions.Finally,threescenarios(inertia,comparativedecouplingandabsolutedecoupling)for2020and2030weresimulatedbasedonthelow-carboncityandHumanImpactPopulationAffluenceTechnol

6、ogy(IPAT)models.Theresultsshowed(1)carbonemissionsincreasedby1.66timesfrom2000to2014,andtrendsofcarbonemissionswereusedtodividethestudyperiodintothreephases(rapid,mediumgrowthandslowdecreasephases,withannualgrowthratesof12.60%,4.77%and1.24%,respectively);(2)theenergyintensityeffectfrom200

7、0–2011inhibitedcarbonemissionsbutwasexceededbytheeconomicoutputeffect,whichincreasedemissions,whereastheenergyintensityeffectfrom2011–2014outweighedtheeconomicoutputeffect;(3)thescenarioanalysesrevealedthatboththecomparativeandabsolutedecouplingscenarioswouldr