2013美赛获奖作品

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1、Team#17696Page30of31ForofficeuseonlyT1________________T2________________T3________________T4________________TeamControlNumber17696ProblemChosenBForofficeuseonlyF1________________F2________________F3________________F4________________2013MathematicalContest

2、inModeling(MCM/ICM)SummarySheetSummaryFreshwateristhelimitingconstraintfordevelopmentinmuchoftheworld.TakeChinaintoconsideration,thenation’sfreshwatersuppliescannolongerquenchitsthirst.WebuildModelOneandModelTwotopredictthefreshwaterneededandavailablein20

3、25,fromwhichwecangetavisualizedconclusionofwatershortageinfutureChina.BasedontheconclusionwesetupModelThreeandModelFourtoputforwardstrategiestosolvetheproblemofsavingwaterindifferentfieldsandincreasethesourcesoffreshwater.Inordertofindthebeststrategies,Mo

4、delFivewassetuptoevaluatethedifferentstrategiesbasedontheindexesofcostandwatersaving.Finallywecameupthebeststrategyaccordingtoourmodels.Thefirstmodelpredictsthefreshwateravailablein2025basedontheassumptionthatthemainsourcesoffreshwaterarestableintheshortp

5、eriod.ModelTwoassumesthatsweepingreformswillnotbeimplementedintermsofindustry,agricultureandsocietyandpredictstheamountoffreshwaterneededbasedontheusageofdifferentfieldsandareasinordertomakethepredictionmoreconvincing.Basedonthethoughtof“strategicsourcing

6、initiative”,thethirdmodelisbuilttocutthewaterexpenditure.RegressionModelandAnalyticHierarchyProcessareemployedtosolvetheproblemofsavingfreshwaterinindustry,agricultureanddomestic.ModelFourisemployedtosolvetheproblemofincreasingthesourceoffreshwaterthrough

7、desalinizationandsewagerecycling.Theevaluationofdifferentstrategiestakescostandgoalintoconsideration.PrincipalComponentAnalysisisemployedtoevaluatethestrategies.Wedividedthestrategiesinto“Businessasusual,Governance,StrongandAtallCosts”,andthestrongscoresh

8、ighestinthecomprehensiveevaluationofallstrategies.Weproposedourwaterstrategybasedontheanalysisandevaluationabove.Inanutshell,wepredictedthefreshwatershortageroundlyandputforwardastrategybasedonthecomprehensiveevalua