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1、AreWeThereYet? America’srecoverywillbemuchslowerthanthatfrommostrecessions;butthegovernmentcanhelpabit. “WHITHERgoestthou,America?”Thatquestion,posedbyJackKerouaconbehalfoftheBeatgenerationhalfacenturyago,isthebiggestuncertaintyhangingovertheworldeconomy.Anditre
2、flectstheforemostworryforAmericanvoters,whogotothepollsforthecongressionalmid-termelectionsonNovember2ndwiththecountry’sunemploymentratestubbornlystuckatnearlyoneinten.Theyshouldpreparethemselvesforalong,hardride. Themostwrenchingrecessionsincethe1930sendedayear
3、ago.Buttherecovery—nonetoopowerfultobeginwith—slowedsharplyearlierthisyear.GDPgrewbyafeeble1.6%atanannualpaceinthesecondquarter,andseemstohavebeenstucksomewheresimilarsince.Thehousingmarketslumpedaftertemporarytaxincentivestobuyahomeexpired.Sofewprivatejobswereb
4、eingcreatedthatunemploymentlookedmorelikelytorisethanfall.Fearsgrewoverthesummerthatifthisdecelerationcontinued,America’seconomywouldslipbackintorecession. Fortunately,thoseworriesnowseemexaggerated.Partoftheweaknessofsecond-quarterGDPwasprobablybecauseofatempor
5、arysurgeinimportsfromChina.Thelateststatistics,fromreasonablygoodretailsalesinAugusttofallingclaimsforunemploymentbenefits,pointtoaneconomythat,thoughstillweak,isnotslumpingfurther.Andhistorysuggeststhatalthoughnascentrecoveriesoftenwobbleforaquarterortwo,theyra
6、relyrelapseintorecession.Fornow,itismostlikelythatAmerica’seconomywillcrawlalongwithgrowthatperhaps2.5%:abovestallspeed,butfartooslowtomakemuchdifferencetothejoblessrate. Why,giventhatAmericausuallyreboundsfromrecession,aretheprospectssobleak?That’sbecausemostpa
7、strecessionshavebeencausedbytightmonetarypolicy.Whenpolicyisloosened,demandrebounds.Thisrecessionwastheresultofafinancialcrisis.Recoveriesafterfinancialcrisesarenormallyweakandslowasbankingsystemsarerepairedandbalance-sheetsrebuilt.Typically,thisperiodofdebtredu
8、ctionlastsaroundsevenyears,whichmeansAmericawouldemergefromitin2014.Bysomemeasures,householdsarereducingtheirdebtburdensunusuallyfast,butevenoptimisticseersdonotthink
