Influenza Early Warning Model Based on Yunqi Theory

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1、•192•ChinJIntegrMed2012Mar;18(3):192-196ORIGINALARTICLEInfluenzaEarlyWarningModelBasedonYunqiTheory1231HUXue-qin(ᑋᭃ၁),GeraldQuirchmayr,WernerWiniwarter,andCUIMeng(࢖ᗜ)ABSTRACTObjective:ToestablishanearlywarningmodeltosimulatetheoutbreakofinfluenzabasedonweatherconditionsandYunqitheory,anancientc

2、alendartheoryofChinesemedicine(CM).Methods:Tianjin,anortheasterncityinChina,waschosenastheregionofresearchandappliedtheinfluenza-likeillnessattackrate(ILI)%asthebaselineandwarninglinetodeterminetheseverityofinfluenzaepidemic.Then,aninfluenzaearlywarningmodelwasconstructedbasedonthetheoryofroughs

3、etandsupportvectormachines(RS-SVM),andtherelationshipbetweeninfluenzaandmeteorologywasexploredthroughanalyzingthemonitoringdata.Results:Thepredictiveperformanceofthemodelwasgood,whichhadachieved81.8%accuracywhengroupingtheobtaineddataintothreelevelsthatrepresentnodanger,dangerofalightepidemic,

4、anddangerofasevereepidemic.Thetestresultsshowedthatifthehostqiandguestqiwerenotbalanced,thiskindofsituationwasmorelikelytocauseinfluenzaoutbreaks.Conclusions:Theoutbreakofinfluenzacloselyrelatestotemperature,humidity,visibility,andwindspeedandisconsistentwithsomepartofCMdoctrine.Theresultalsoin

5、dicatesthatthereissomereasonableevidenceintheYunqitheory.KEYWORDSYunqitheory,influenza,meteorologicalfactors,earlywarningmodelYunqitheoryisauniquetheorythatancientsthat"fever100cF(37.8Ć),oralorequivalent,andstudiedtherelationshipbetweenclimatechangeandcoughorsorethroat,andintheabsenceofotherdi

6、sease.Guidedbythethoughtofcorrespondencelaboratoryconfirmedevidence."Previousresearchbetweenhumanandnature,itassociatestheonthehealtheffectsofclimatechangehasmainlymeteorologicalchangesofnaturewiththestateofthefocusedontheimpactofmeteorologicalindicatorshumanbodytopredicttheoccurrenceofdiseas

7、einsuchastemperatureandhumidity.However,inthisthehumanbodyandproposesacyclicalmodelforthepaper,weaddedanewindicatortoourearlywarning(1)preventionandtreatmentofdiseases.model,i.e.,therelationshipbetweenhostqiandguestqibasedonYunqitheory.Sincet