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1、1JANUARY2010mckinseyglobalinstituteAnearlywarningsystemforassetbubblesNewresearchfromtheMcKinseyGlobalInstituteshowsthattherighttoolscouldhaveidentifiedtherecentglobalcreditbubbleyearsbeforethecrisisbroke.SusanLundandCharlesRoxburgh▪2Aspolicymakersan
2、dbusinessleadersgatherinDavos,Switzerland,thisweek,muchoftheirconversationwillnodoubtfocusonhowtodriveaglobaleconomicrecovery.Yettheyshouldspendjustasmuchtimeandenergydiscussinghowtopreventthenextdevastatingfinancialcrisis—specifically,howtospotandpr
3、ickassetbubblesastheyareinflating.Formanyyears,someoftheworld’smostprominentcentralbankerssaiddoingsowasimpossible.However,newresearchfromtheMcKinseyGlobalInstitute(MGI)showsthatrisingleverageisagoodproxyforanassetbubble—andthattherighttoolscouldhave
4、identifiedtherecentglobalcreditbubbleyearsbeforethecrisisbroke.Weurgepolicymakerstodevelopthesetoolsandusethemtoensureamorestablefinancialsystem,therebyavoidingmoreofthewidespreadpainandsufferingcausedbythecurrentcrisis.OurnewMGIreport,Debtanddelever
5、aging:Theglobalcreditbubbleanditseconomicconsequences,detailshowdebtroserapidlyafter2000toveryhighlevelsinmatureeconomiesaroundtheworld.Buttospotabubble,weneedtoknowhowmuchdebtistoomuch.Somehouseholds,businesses,andgovernmentscancarryhighlevelsveryea
6、sily,whileothersstrugglewithlesseramounts.Theanswerliesnotinthelevelofdebtalonebutinthesustainabilityofdebt.Ifborrowerscannotservicetheirdebt,theywillgothroughaprocessofdebtreduction,ordeleveraging.Weseetoday,forexample,thatmanydebt-burdenedhousehold
7、saredeleveraging—voluntarilyandinvoluntarily—bysavingmoreandpayingdowndebt,orbydefaulting.Tounderstandthesustainabilityofcurrentdebtlevels,welookedatborrowingwithinindividualsectorsandsubsectorsofindividualeconomiesandatmoregranularfactorssuchasthere
8、centgrowthrateofleverage,borrowers’abilitytoservicethedebtundernormalconditions,andborrowers’vulnerabilitytoadisruptioninincomeoraspikeininterestrates.Ouranalysisisfarfromperfect.Thedatawewouldideallywantarenotwhollyavailable.Still,theresultsshowthat
