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1、Articlepubs.acs.org/estEvaluatingRareEarthElementAvailability:ACasewithRevolutionaryDemandfromCleanTechnologiesElisaAlonso,AndrewM.Sherman,TimothyJ.Wallington,MarkP.Everson,FrankR.Field,RichardRoth,andRandolphE.Kirchain*MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,MIT/RoomE38-43277MassachusettsAve.,Cam
2、bridge,Massachusetts02139-4307*SSupportingInformationABSTRACT:Thefutureavailabilityofrareearthelements(REEs)isofconcernduetomonopolisticsupplyconditions,environmentallyunsustainableminingpractices,andrapiddemandgrowth.WepresentanevaluationofpotentialfuturedemandscenariosforREEswithafocusonthe
3、issueofcomining.Manyassumptionsweremadetosimplifytheanalysis,butthescenariosidentifysomekeyvariablesthatcouldaffectfuturerareearthmarketsandmarketbehavior.Increaseduseofwindenergyandelectricvehiclesarekeyelementsofamoresustainablefuture.However,sincepresenttech-nologiesforelectricvehiclesandw
4、indturbinesrelyheavilyondysprosium(Dy)andneodymium(Nd),inrare-earthmagnets,futureadoptionofthesetechnologiesmayresultinlargeanddisproportionateincreasesinthedemandforthesetwoelements.Forthisstudy,upperandlowerboundusageprojectionsforREEintheseapplicationsweredevelopedtoevaluatethestateoffutur
5、eREEsupplyavailability.IntheabsenceofefficientreuseandrecyclingorthedevelopmentoftechnologieswhichuseloweramountsofDyandNd,followingapathconsistentwithstabilizationofatmosphericCO2at450ppmmayleadtoanincreaseofmorethan700%and2600%forNdandDy,respectively,overthenext25yearsifthepresentREEneedsin
6、automotiveandwindapplicationsarerepresentativeoffutureneeds.■INTRODUCTIONforonly10ofthe17elements,andthereforethefollowingIncreasingconcernsabouttheenvironmentalimpactsandanalysisfocusesonthese:La,Ce,Pr,Nd,Sm,Eu,Gd,Tb,Dy,reliabilityofsupplyoffossilfuelsaremotivatingaglobaldriveandY.Thecommerc
7、ialsignificanceofREEsisnotreflectedintowardintroductionofemergingtechnologiessuchasphoto-thevolumeinwhichtheyareused;theirannualprimaryvoltaics,fuelcells,andwindturbines.However,theavailabilityproductiontonnageisapproximately2ordersofmagnitud
