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1、PolicyUncertainty,TradeandWelfare:TheoryandEvidenceforChinaandtheU.S.KyleHandleyNunoLim~aoUniversityofMichiganUniversityofMarylandandNBERhandleyk@umich.eduLimao@umd.eduThisVersion:December2014ABSTRACT:Weexaminetheimpactofpolicyuncertaintyontradeandrealincome
2、through rms'exportinvestmentsingeneralequilibrium.Wequantifythetradepolicycausesandwelfaree ectsofChina'sexportboomtowardtheU.S.followingits2001WTOaccession;reducingthethreatofatradewarexplains22%ofexportgrowthtotheU.S.ReducedpolicyuncertaintyloweredU.S.price
3、s,increasingconsumers'incomebyatleast0.8percent,thewelfareequivalentofan8percentagepointtari decrease.These ndingsprovideevidenceoflargee ectsofpolicyuncertaintyoneconomicactivityandtheimportanceofagreementsinreducingit.WethankNickBloom,HeliaCosta,SteveDavis
4、,RafaelDix-Carneiro,RobertDekle,JustinPierce,GiselleRua,TimSchmidt-Eisenlohr,JagadeeshSivadasan,RobertStaigerandShang-JinWeiforusefulcomments.Wearealsothankfulforcommentsfromparticipantsatseveralseminars(DartmouthCollege,LondonSchoolofEconomics,UniversityofCh
5、icago,UniversityofMichigan,WesternMichiganUniversity,WorldBankResearchGroup,YaleUniversity)andconferences(EmpiricalInvestigationsinInternationalTrade,FRBAtlantaTradeWorkshop,HitotsubashiConferenceonInternationalTradeandFDI,LisbonmeetingonInstitutionsandPoliti
6、calEconomy,NBERChinaGroup,PolicyUncertaintyConferenceatPrincetonUniversity,WashingtonAreaTradeConference).Weacknowledge nancialsupportfromtheNSFundergrantsSES-1360738(Handley)andSES-1360780(Lim~ao).Wearealsogratefulforcommentsonpreliminaryresultsfromparticipa
7、ntsatPennState(2010);NBERSpringMeetings(2011)andPolicyUncertaintyConference(ChicagoUniversity,2012).JeronimoCarballoprovidedexcellentresearchassistance.1IntroductionOneofthemostimportanteconomicdevelopmentsofthelast20yearsisChina'sintegrationintotheglobaltrad
8、ingsystem.Theworld'sshareofimportsfromChinabetween1990-2010rosefrom2to11percentandthatincreasewasevenlargerfortheU.S.(from3to19percent).Thishastranslatedintoamorethantenfoldincreaseinthes
