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1、DEMYSTIFYINGMODELLINGMETHODSFOR10TRADEPOLICYbyROBERTAPIERMARTINIandROBERTTEHDISCUSSIONPAPERNO10DemystifyingModellingMethodsforTradePolicybyRobertaPiermartiniandRobertTehWorldTradeOrganizationGeneva,SwitzerlandDisclaimerandcitationguidelineDiscussionPapersarepresentedbytheauthor
2、sintheirpersonalcapacityandopinionsexpressedinthesepapersshouldbeattributedtotheauthors.TheyarenotmeanttorepresentthepositionsoropinionsoftheWTOSecretariatorofitsMembersandarewithoutprejudicetoMembers’rightsandobligationsundertheWTO.Anyerrorsoromissionsaretheresponsibilityofthe
3、authors.AnycitationofthispapershouldascribeauthorshiptostaffoftheWTOSecretariatandnottotheWTO.ThispaperisonlyavailableinEnglish–PriceCHF20.-Toorder,pleasecontact:WTOPublicationsCentreWilliamRappard154ruedeLausanneCH-1211GenevaSwitzerlandTel:(4122)7395208Fax:(4122)7395792Website
4、:www.wto.orgE-mail:publications@wto.orgISSN1726-9466ISBN92-870-3328-5PrintedbytheWTOSecretariatIX-2005Keywords:ComputableGeneralEquilibrium(CGE),GTAP,gravitymodel,simulations,estimations,tradeliberalization.©WorldTradeOrganization,2005.Reproductionofmaterialcontainedinthisdocum
5、entmaybemadeonlywithwrittenpermissionoftheWTOPublicationsManager.WithwrittenpermissionoftheWTOPublicationsManager,reproductionanduseofthematerialcontainedinthisdocumentfornon-commercialeducationalandtrainingpurposesisencouraged.ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSTheauthorsareverygratefultoKymAnde
6、rson,SimonEvenett,CarstenFink,ThomasHertel,LeeAnnJackson,RobertKoopman,PatrickLow,DonaldMacLaren,WillMartin,HildegunnNordås,PatrickOsakwe,RobertStern,StephenTokarickandAlanWintersfortheircommentsonanearlierversionofthispaper.ABSTRACTInrecentyears,quantitativeanalysisoftheeffect
7、sofpoliciesoneconomicoutcomeshasgrownsharply.Theseexercisesinquantificationhavebeenmadepossiblebyadvancesintheoryandanalyticaltechniques,andnolessimportantly,bythedramaticallyincreasedcomputationalanddataprocessingpowerofcomputers.Thispaperfocusesontwoclassesofquantitativetools–
8、computablegeneralequilibrium(CGE)modelsandgravitymodel
