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1、WTOWorkingPaperERSD-2015-05Date:26May2015WorldTradeOrganizationEconomicResearchandStatisticsDivisionTradepolicyuncertaintyasbarriertotradeAlbertoOsnago,RobertaPiermartiniandNadiaRochaManuscriptdate:April,2015Disclaimer:Thispaperisworkinprogressandshouldnotbereportedasrepresenti
2、ngtheviewsoftheWTOortheWorldBank.Theviewsexpressedarethoseoftheauthorsanddonotnecessarilyreflect,officiallyorunofficially,thoseoftheWTOoritsMembers,theWorldBankGroup,northepositionofanystaffmembers.Anyerrorsarethefaultoftheauthors.WethankValeriaGroppoforfacilitatingaccesstothed
3、atabaseontariffs.WethankNunoLimao,AadityaMattooandtheparticipantstotheIMF/WB/WTOWorkshopfortheirusefulcommentsonpreviousdraftsofthepaper.TradepolicyuncertaintyasbarriertotradeAbstractThispaperstudiestheeffectsoftradepolicyuncertaintyontheextensiveandtheintensivemarginsoftradefo
4、rasampleof149exportersattheHS6digitlevel.Wemeasuretradepolicyuncertaintyasthegapbetweenbindingtariffcommitmentsundertradeagreements(multilateralandregionalagreements)andappliedtariffs-whatisalsoknownastariffs’water.Ourresultsshowthattradepolicyuncertaintyisanimportantbarriertoe
5、xport.Onaveragetheeliminationofwaterincreasestheprobabilityofexportingby12percent.Aonepercentdecreaseofwateralsoincreasesexportvolumesbyonepercent.Wealsofindthatthenegativeimpactoftradepolicyuncertaintyishigherforcountrieswithlowqualityofinstitutionsandinthepresenceofglobalvalu
6、echains.Finally,ourfindingsshowthatonaveragetradepolicyuncertaintyisequivalenttoaleveloftariffsbetween1.7and8.7percentagepoints.Keywords:Bindingoverhang,tariffs,policyspace,non-tariffbarriers,WorldTradeOrganizationJELCodes:F10,F13,F1421.IntroductionPolicymakershavelongbelievedt
7、hatanimportantcontributionoftradeagreementsistoincreasethepredictabilityoftradepolicy.TheWTOanditsmultilateralagreementsoftradeingoodsaimatensuringthattradeflowsassmoothly,predictablyandfreelyaspossible.SpecificallyWTOmembers1makecommitmentsnottoincreasetariffsabovesomeboundrat
8、es.Still,tradepolicyregimesareflexibleandtariffsmaycha
