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1、HarvardBusinessSchool9-195-179April24,1995DONOTCOPYGrowthRateAnalysisAcorporation’svalueisdeterminedinlargepartbyitsprojectedsales,earnings,anddividendgrowthrates,whichinturnareafunctionofitsprojectedindustrygrowthrate,competitiveposition,andcorporatestrategy.Growthrateanalysi
2、susesfinancialratioanalysis,qualityofearningsanalysis,andselectedstatisticaltechniquestoanalyzecorporatefinancialreportsinordertoprojectgrowthtrendsandtoidentifypossiblechangesintheoperating,financial,andstrategiccharacteristicsofcorporations.Becauseoftheimportanceofcorporateg
3、rowthratestocorporatesuccessandvaluation,thegrowthrateofacorporation’ssales,profits,anddividendsisamajorfocusofmanyfinancialstatementanalyses:Investorsareinterestedbecauseofthecloserelationshipbetweenequitystockvaluesandprojectedgrowthrateandtheexpectedvolatilityofearningsandd
4、ividends.Creditorsexaminepastgrowthrecordsinordertopredictthefutureleveloffundingrequiredtofinancechangesinaccountsreceivables,inventories,andproductiveassets.Corporationsscrutinizegrowthratesofthemselvesandtheirrivalsinordertoascertainhowwelltheyaredoingonacomparativebasis,to
5、detectpotentialweaknessesintheircompetitors,andtopredictfuturecompetitivebehavior.Typically,theanalysisofgrowthcharacteristicsandgrowthratesinvolvesthreemajorsteps:First,aquantitativemeasurementoftherateofgrowthofthevariablesbeingexamined.Thisquantificationmayrangefromasimplei
6、ndexnumberseriestoacomplexmathematicalequationdescribingthegrowthpatterninherentinthedata.Second,theidentificationofthevarioussourcesofthegrowth.Thisphaseinvolvesbothquantitativeandqualitativeassessmentsofthesourcesofgrowthaswellasananalysisoftherelationshipofthesevarioussourc
7、estoeachother,theoperatingandfinancialcharacteristicsofthefirm,andtheexternalenvironmentduringtheperiodunderreview.Third,theuseoftheprecedinganalysesincombinationwithotherdata,suchasprojectedindustrygrowthratesormanagements’announcedcapitalexpansionplants,toforecastfuturelevel
8、sofgrowthandtospeculateonthepossiblefinancialandoperatingcons
