贸易战：中国的制胜之道（中国宏观策略）

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1、ContentsExecutivesummary2Thetradewarbites5China-UStradetensionshavetakenatolloneconomicgrowth5Tradediversionandsupplychainrelocation6Technologicalrivalryismoreofaconcern11Reflatingdomesticdemand13Loweringcorporatetax13Crediteasingtargetstheprivatesector14Issuingmorespecialbondstofinancei

2、nfrastructureinvestment16FocusingonICTandgreeninvestment16Speedingupstructuralreforms18Structuralreformunlocksdomesticdemand18Competitiveneutralitykeytorevitalisingtheprivatesector19Intellectualpropertyrightsprotectionessentialforinnovation22Theprivatesectorbenefitsfromsuccessfulandfaste

3、rreform25Furtheropeningup27Morediversification27Deepeningglobalinnovation29BecomingamoreattractiveFDIdestination31Keyrecentpublications33Disclosureappendix34Disclaimer36ThetradewarbitesuTradetensionshavetakenatollonexportsandeconomicgrowthinChina,andwilllikelyremainasamajorchallengeahead

4、uSupplychainrelocationshouldhurtGDPgrowthandemployment,but“pull”factorsmayincentivisemanufacturerstostayinChinauProlongedtechnologicalrivalrycouldbemoredisruptive,asitwouldslowthetechnology“catch-up”processaswellasproductivitygrowthChina-UStradetensionshavetakenatolloneconomicgrowthChina

5、’stradewiththeUShasslowedsignificantlysincelate2018Althoughtherewassome“front-loading”afterthetradetensionswerefirstfeltin2018,China’stradewiththeUShasslowedsignificantlysincethe10%tariffonUSD200bnofChinaimportstookeffectinSeptember2018(seeChart1).Inthefirstfivemonthsof2019,China’sexpor

6、tstotheUScontractedby9%y-o-y,creatingamaterialdragontotalexportgrowth.Falteringglobaldemandandsuppressedbusinesssentimentaddedtotheweaknessinexportgrowth.AswecanseeinChart3,eventheremainingChinaexportstotheUSthathavenotbeentariffed(thegreyline)havebeengrowingataslowerpacesincelate2018.Ch

7、art1:ChinaexportgrowthbydestinationChart2:Importgrowthdeceleratingatafasterpacethanexportgrowth16Contribution,ppt1284YoY%,3mma80604020YoY%,3mma806040200-4Mar-17ASEANSep-17Mar-18EUSep-18USMar-190-20-400-20-40JapanSouthKoreaHongKong07080910111213141516171819Othe