20130726-Goldman Sachs-The China credit conundrum

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1、July26,2013ChinaTheChinacreditconundrum:Risks,pathsandimplicationsPortfolioStrategyResearchKeyconcernsaroundChina’srapidcreditbuildupKennethHo+852-2978-7468kenneth.ho@gs.comChinesepolicymakers’historicalemphasisonhighgrowth,alongsideGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.e

2、ffortstodiversifythefinancialsystem,hasledtoalargecreditbuildup–China’stotaldebtisnowc.210%ofGDP,wellaboveemerging-marketHelenZhu+852-2978-0048helen.zhu@gs.compeers.WhileahighabsolutelevelofdebtdoesnotbyitselfpresageaGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.crisis,reasonsfor

3、concerninclude:1)theveryrapidcreditgrowthinrecentyears;2)thediminishinglinksbetweencreditandGDPgrowth;and3)theAndrewTilton+852-2978-1802andrew.tilton@gs.combriskexpansionofthe“shadowbanking”sector.GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.Howitstands:Pressurepointsfromunsusta

4、inableleveragegrowthTimothyMoe,CFA+852-2978-1328timothy.moe@gs.comWeanalyzedavailablepublicsourcesofdataonChinesecreditfromatop-GoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.downandbottom-upbasis.OurcreditqualitytriangulationsuggeststhatNingMathehighest-riskareasare:1)lendingtolo

5、calgovernmentfinancing+86(10)6627-3063ning.ma@ghsl.cnvehicles(LGFVs)viabondsorothershadowbankingchannels;2)lendingBeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedtoovercapacityindustriesviabanksorshadowbanking(excl.corporateBenBeibonds).Someaspectsofcorporatecreditstre

6、ssarenearing2008peaks,+852-2978-1220ben.bei@gs.comwhichisconcerning,asasharp2009/10stylerecovery(viahighermarginsGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.andlowerinterestrates)doesnotlookimminent,inourview.GeorgeFong+852-2978-2676george.fong@gs.comLookingahead:Amoreproactive

7、stanceandhigherpainthresholdGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.Thepreviousleadershipinstigatedalargestimulusin2009andChenjieLiuaccommodatedrapidcreditgrowthinrecentyears.Thenewleadershiphas+86(10)6627-3324chenjie.liu@ghsl.cnsofarleanedtowardsa“proactive”reformstrategy(

8、toaddressexistingBeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedproblemsandpre-emptfurtherrisks)butinourviewislikelytointerweaveJasonSunthiswithperiodsof“forbearance”attimeswhengrowthappearsseriously+86(1