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1、March18,2014Chinacreditconundrum:Assessingnear-termrisksSecuritiesResearchReportTrusts/LGFVbonds–Defaultriskrising,butsystemicriskunlikelyEnergy&miningtrustsexposedtohigherrisksChenjieLiu,Ph.D+86(10)6627-3324chenjie.liu@ghsl.cnThemarketisincreasinglyfocusedoncreditr
2、isksinChinaandinthisreportBeijingGaoHuaSecuritiesCompanyLimitedweassessthenear-termrisksoftrustproductsandLGFVbonds.WeseetheSACLicenseNo.S1420511070002defaultriskfortrustsincreasinginthecomingquartersduetothetighteningoffinancialconditionsandfallingmining/propertyco
3、mpanies’cashflow.Amongvarioustrusttypes,wegaugeenergy&miningtrustsinvestedinprivateprojectstohavethelargestriskstemmingfromlowprofitabilityandlessgovernmentsupport.LGFVbondshaverelativelylessriskasperouranalysisduetolowerfundingcost,longerduration,andclearincentivef
4、orlocalgovernmentstosupportthem.Longertermcreditrisksoftheseproductshingeongovernmentstanceandreformprogress.Defaultsmayoccur,butsystemicriskstillbenignPolicymakersarefacingadilemmawithregardtotrusts/LGFVbondsandmayneedtoconsiderboththeurgencytocurbrisksaswellasthep
5、otentialcontagionimpacttriggeredbydefaults.Althoughwedonotruleoutsomesmalldefaultsoccurringlaterthisyear,wethinkpotentialcontagionriskisstillcontainedduetolowsystemictolerancefromthegovernment.Overhangtopersist;highyield,lowgearingnamesinfocusWethinkpotentialdefault
6、smaytriggerwiderinterestspreadsbetweenlowandhighcredits.Ontheequitymarketfront,webelievetheoverallimpactcouldbenegativedueto:1)earningserosiononhigherfundingcost,2)valuationoverhangpersisting,and3)liquiditystillnotfavoringhighriskassetclassonrisingriskpremium.Highly
7、leveredpropertyandminingcompaniesmaybethemostaffected,especiallyprivatecompanies,inourview.Companieswithampleliquidity,offeringattractivedividendorwithlessexposuretocreditrisksuchasDaqinRailway,Yashiliandselectsportswearcompaniesarelikelytobelessimpacted.Webelievepr
8、ivateenergy&miningtrustshavehigherrisksthisyearHigherriskLGFVbondsinfratrustsrealestatetrustsprivateminingtrustsPerceivedmarketreactiontow
