China Rising risks of financial crisis

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1、AsiaSpecialReportNOMURAGLOBALECONOMICSNOMURAINTERNATIONAL(HONGKONG)LIMITEDChina:RisingrisksoffinancialcrisisChinaisdisplayingthesamethreesymptomsthatJapan,theUS15March2013andpartsofEuropeallshowedbeforesufferingfinancialcrises:arapidbuild-upofleverage,elevatedproper

2、typricesandaAuthorsdeclineinpotentialgrowth.Economists,Asiaex-JapanWedelveintothefinancialrisksfacingChina’seconomyandfindZhiweiZhangzhiwei.zhang@nomura.comthatthemostvulnerableareasarelocalgovernmentfinancing+85225367433vehicles,propertydevelopers,trustcompaniesand

3、creditWendyChenguaranteecompanies.Wealsoshowhowtheyareinterlinked.wendy.chen@nomura.com+862161937237Ifthegovernmentactsthisyearwithtighterpolicies–andourbasecaseisthatitwill–webelieveitcanstillavoidasystemicFXandRatesStrategists,Asiaex-Japanfinancialcrisis.Butthatwo

4、uldcomeatashort-termcostofCraigChanslowerGDPgrowth,whichweexpecttoaverage7.3%inH22013.craig.chan@nomura.comSeeAppendixA+6564336106-1foranalystAshistoryhasrepeatedlyshown,theslowerthepolicyresponsecertification,importantPrateekGuptatofinancialexcesses,thegreatertheri

5、skofasystemicfinancialprateek.guptadisclosuresandthestatusof@nomura.comcrisisandthemorechallengingitwillbetoavoidahardeconomic+6564336197non-USanalysts.landing.VivekRajpalvivek.rajpal@nomura.com+912240374438PrateekGuptaprateek.gupta@nomura.com+6564336197WeeChoonTeowe

6、echoon.teo@nomura.com+6564336107NomuraNomura

7、AsiaSpecialReport15March2013ContentsIntroduction3Symptomsoffinancialrisks41.Rapidbuild-upofleverage42.Rapidassetpriceinflation93.Declineofpotentialgrowth11Identifyingtherisks15Governmentfinances15Financialsectorconditions1

8、7Householdsector21Corporatesector21Thelinkageofrisksandmoralhazard22Endgame:Basecaseandriskscenario23Basecase23Riskscenario24Appendices26Appendix1:Fiveroundsoftrustcompanyregulation26Appendix2:Trustcompanieshavegrabbedtheheadlines27Appendix3:Forecastsummary28Referenc

9、es29RecentAsiaSpecialReports302Nomura

10、AsiaSpecialReport15March2013IntroductionTheChinesegovernmenthasinrecentmonthssentanumberofunu