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1、OXFORDBULLETINOFECONOMICSANDSTATISTICS,73,2(2011)0305-9049doi:10.1111/j.1468-0084.2010.00625.xWhyhasChinaGrownSoFast?TheRoleofPhysicalandHumanCapitalFormation*SaiDing†andJohnKnight‡†DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofGlasgow,AdamSmithBuilding,GlasgowG128RT,UK(e-mail:sai.ding@glasgow
2、.ac.uk)‡ChinaGrowthCentre,StEdmundHall,UniversityofOxford,OxfordOX14AR,UK(e-mail:john.knight@economics.ox.ac.uk)AbstractCross-provincegrowthregressionsforChinaareestimatedforthereformperiod.Tworesearchquestionsareasked.CantheregressionshelpustounderstandwhyChinaasawholehasgrownsofa
3、st?WhattypesofinvestmentmatterforChina’sgrowth?Weaddresstheproblemofmodeluncertaintybyadoptingtwoapproachestomodelselectiontocon-siderawiderangeofcandidatepredictorsofgrowth.Startingfromthebaselineequation,thegrowthimpactofphysicalandhumancapitalisexaminedusingpaneldatatechniques.B
4、othformsofcapitalpromoteeconomicgrowth.‘Investmentininnovation’andprivateinvestmentarefoundtobeparticularlyimportant.Secondaryschoolenrolmentcontributestogrowth,andhighereducationenrolmentevenmoreso.Fortheperiod1960–1980weobserve,forexample,India1.4%ayear,...,SouthKorea7.0%,...AnIn
5、dianwillonaveragebetwiceaswelloffashisgrandfather;aKorean50times...Theconsequencesforhumanwelfareinvolvedinquestionslikethesearesimplystaggering:onceonestartstothinkaboutthem,itisdifficulttothinkofanythingelse.(Lucas,2002:20-1).I.IntroductionSinceeconomicreformcommencedin1978,theCh
6、ineseeconomyhasexperiencedremark-ableeconomicgrowth.ThegrowthrateofGDPpercapitaaveraged8.6%perannumoverthe30-yearperiod1978–2007.Noristhereanysignofdecelerationingrowth:overtheyears2000–07,theequivalentfigurewas9.2%,andChinaaccountedforabout35%ofÅWearegratefultoJonathanTemple,Adrian
7、WoodandparticipantsintheESRCDevelopmentconferenceinSussex,andalsoBeltonFleisher,XiaoboZhangandparticipantsintheMicroeconomicDriversofGrowthofChinaconferenceinOxford,fortheirconstructivecommentsonanearlierversionofthispaper.Wethanktwoanonymousrefereesforstimulatingcomments.Thefinanci
8、alsupportoftheLeverhulmeTr
