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1、AnnualJournalofHydraulicEngineering,JSCE,Vol.**,20**,FebruaryDEVELOPMENTOFASTATISTICALBIASCORRECTIONMETHODFORDAILYPRECIPITATIONDATAOFGCM20HironoriINOMATA1,KuniyoshiTAKEUCHI2andKazuhikoFUKAMI31MemberofJSCE,MasterofEng.,Researcher,InternationalCentreforWaterHazardandRiskManagement,PublicW
2、orksResearchInstitute(1-6,Minamihara,Tsukuba,Ibaraki,Japan)2MemberofJSCE,Doctor.of.Eng.,Director,InternationalCentreforWaterHazardandRiskManagement,PublicWorksResearchInstitute(1-6,Minamihara,Tsukuba,Ibaraki,Japan)3MemberofJSCE,MasterofEng.,Researcher,InternationalCentreforWaterHazardan
3、dRiskManagement,PublicWorksResearchInstitute(1-6,Minamihara,Tsukuba,Ibaraki,Japan)Inthisstudy,asimplestatisticalmethodisdevelopedtocorrectbiasintheprecipitationsimulatedbyGCM20,anatmosphericgeneralcirculationmodelwith20kmspatialresolutiondevelopedbytheMeteorologicalResearchInstitute.The
4、methodprimarilyaimstocorrectintensityofGCM20dailyprecipitationsamplestoexpressbothseasonalpatternsandextremevaluesappropriately.ThebasicideaofthebiascorrectionistoadjusttheprobabilitydistributionofGCM20dailyprecipitationtothatofitsobservedcounterparts.Toexaminethecorrectionperformanceth
5、eproposedmethodisappliedtotheYoshinoRiverbasininJapan.TheresultsshowthatitappropriatelycorrectstheGCM20biasinbothmonthlyandextremedailyprecipitation.KeyWords:clmatechange,generalcirculationmodel,biascorrection,precipitation1.INTRODUCTION(GCM20).Themodeloutputishighlyexpectedtoserveforim
6、provingfloodimpactassessment.TheIntergovernmentalPanelonClimateHowever,comparingGCM20precipitationoutputChange(IPCC)reportedthatintensityandwithgroundobservationintheYoshinoRiverbasin4)frequencyofheavyprecipitationwillincreaseveryinJapan,Inomataetal.foundthattheGCM20likelyunderclimatech
7、ange1).Thissuggeststhatoutputexhibitsunderestimationespeciallyinheavythereisthehighpossibilitythatfrequencyandprecipitationinwetseasonandshowsdiscrepanciesmagnitudeofflooddisasterswillalsoincrease.Itisinseasonalpatternssuchasmonthlyprecipitationanurgentmatterthataquantitativeas
