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1、China’sAgriculturalCrisisandFamineof1959-61:ASurveyandComparisontoSovietFaminesDennisTaoYang*DepartmentofEconomicsVirginiaTechNovember2,2007_____________________*TheauthorwouldliketothankMegGottemoeller,JamesKung,RyanMonarch,JamesWenandtwoanonymousrefereesformakingconstructivesuggestionsandcomment
2、sonearlierversionsofthispaper.TheauthorisalsogratefultothefinancialsupportfromtheCenterforChinaintheWorldEconomy(CCWE)atTsinghuaUniversity,wheretheauthorcarriedoutmuchresearchofthispaperwhileservingasSeniorResearchFellowattheCCWE.AbstractChina’sGreatLeapForward(GLF)of1958-61,acampaignofunprecedent
3、edmobilizationeffortstoachieverapidindustrialization,endedasacatastrophe.Nationalgrainproductioncollapsedandawidespreadfamineclaimedmillionsofhumanlives.Thispaperreviewsagrowingeconomicliteratureonthishistoricalcrisis.Whilemultiplecausesarehypothesized,empiricalfindingssuggestthatthecollapseofgrai
4、nproductionwasprimarilyattributabletoasystematicfailureincentralplanning,involvingthediversionofagriculturalresourcestoindustryandexcessivegrainprocurementsthatprecipitatedmalnutritionamongpeasantsanddecimationoflaborproductivity.Theresultingdeclineingrainavailability,aswellasurbanbiasinChina’sfoo
5、ddistributionsystem,becamethemainculpritsoftheenormousfamine.InlightoftheChineseexperience,thispaperalsoexplorestheroleofdefectiveplanningintheSovietfaminesof1931-3and1947.Keywords:centralplanning,foodsupply,famine,urbanbias,China,USSRJEL:I30,P21,Q11,O531China’sAgriculturalCrisisandFamineof1959-61
6、:ASurveyandComparisontoSovietFaminesI.IntroductionTheGreatLeapForward(GLF)campaignof1958-61,whichaimedatquicklytransformingChinaintoapowerfulindustrialstate,involveddramaticturnsofevents,butendedasanationalcatastrophe.Inthe1958NewYear’seditorialofthePeople’sDaily,theChineseCommunistPartyproclaimed
7、theGLFgoalofsurpassingtheUnitedKingdominindustrialproductionin15yearsandtheUnitedStatesin20to30years.Thenationwassoonelevatedtoastateofeuphoria,asnewsofexaggeratedproductionmiraclesspreadthroughoutthecountrylikew
