美元会走弱么（全球宏观：外汇）

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1、ContentsWhateverhappenedto'EndofUSexceptionalism'trade?3EM:HowwearepositionedinEMFX10ThesisMapsDollar13Euro15JapaneseYen17BritishPound19SwissFranc21CanadianDollar23AustralianDollar25NewZealandDollar27NorwegianKrone29SwedishKrona31Gold33BrazilianReal35Chin

2、eseYuan37IndianRupee39MexicanPeso41TurkishLira43UBSG10FXViewsSummary45UBSEMFXViewsSummary46UBSG10FXForecastsandModels47UBSEMFXForecastsandModels49UBSFXTradesTracker51Whateverhappenedto'EndofUSexceptionalism’?ThesinglemostimportantdriveroftheUSDoverlongper

3、iodsoftimehasbeenthedifferenceingrowthratesbetweentheUSandtherestoftheworld(Figure1).ThishasbeensobecausethatgrowthspreadhasbeenamajorinfluenceontheflowofcapitalinandouttheUS,withUSassetmanagersthemostimportantplayers(Figure4).Inareversaloflastyear'sexcep

4、tionalgrowthandratespatterns,USnumbersareagainconvergingontothoseoftherestoftheworld.Yet,therehasbeennoreversalinthecurrencymarkets,merelyaslowingoflastyear'sUSDappreciation.Eventhroughthe2yswapratedifferentialbetweentheUSandEZhastightenedby110bpssinceNov

5、ember,EURUSDhasonlycomedown1.5bigfigures.Why?GrowthdifferentialsbetweentheUSandtherestoftheworldhavebeenagoodguidetotheUSDFigure1:USDrealtradeweightedindexandUS-worldgrowthdifferentialsUS-worldGDPgrowthgapDollarrealTWI(rhs)5%150Figure2:USDstrengthamidl

6、owerglobalgrowth20%4%3%2%1%0%-1%-2%-3%-4%1401301201101009015%DXYreturn(y/y)10%5%0%-5%-10%-15%30thpercentileofglobalgrowthR²=0.253-5%80198119861990199419982003200720112015Source:Haver,UBS0%20%40%60%80%100%Globalgrowthpercentile(y/y)Source:Haver,Bloomb

7、erg,UBScalculationsThegrowthdifferentialframeworkbreaksdownasweapproachthelefttailoftheglobalgrowthdistribution.AworldwhereUSgrowsat3%andtherestoftheworldat5%isnotthesameforUSDasonewhereUSgrowsat0%andtherestoftheworldat2%,despitethesamedifferential.Roughn

8、umberssuggestthattheUSDhasbeenstronginthebottom30thpercentileofglobalgrowthoutcomesinthelast40years(Figure2).Thethresholdbelowwhichthishappensis3-3.2%globalgrowth,howtheIMFtypicallydefinesaglobalrecessionandroughlyw